I mean, no, of course I am not changing my plans based on a 50% drop in pandemic probability. There are tons of pandemic probabilities that change from 0.1% to 0.05%, every week or so, and I am not changing my actions based on that.
In this case, knowing the probability seems to be somewhere in the 1%-10% range is already extremely helpful! I don’t really need to know much more. And I have proxies I can use to evaluate the robustness of the market (like volume), so I am not miscalibrated about the noise.
Yep, not saying that the probability I was referencing here is a prediction market probability (not sure what would have made someone think that, but happy to clarify).
I mean, no, of course I am not changing my plans based on a 50% drop in pandemic probability. There are tons of pandemic probabilities that change from 0.1% to 0.05%, every week or so, and I am not changing my actions based on that.
In this case, knowing the probability seems to be somewhere in the 1%-10% range is already extremely helpful! I don’t really need to know much more. And I have proxies I can use to evaluate the robustness of the market (like volume), so I am not miscalibrated about the noise.
You actually wouldnt know if it was less than 1% due to interest rates
Yep, not saying that the probability I was referencing here is a prediction market probability (not sure what would have made someone think that, but happy to clarify).