From a skim, seems you should be using the 6.25x value rather than the 2.5x in B2 of your sheet. If I’m skimming it correctly, 6.25x is the estimate for replacing a hypothetical all median lab with a hypothetical all top researcher lab. This is what occurs when you improve your ASARA model. Whereas, 2.5x is the estimate for replacing the actual lab with an all top lab.
This still gives a lower than 4x value, but I think if you plug in reasonable log-normals 4x will be within your 90% CI, and so it seems fine.
And i realise Ryan’s seemingly assuming we only use some of the gains for better qualitative capabilities. So that would further reduce the discrepancy.
From a skim, seems you should be using the 6.25x value rather than the 2.5x in B2 of your sheet. If I’m skimming it correctly, 6.25x is the estimate for replacing a hypothetical all median lab with a hypothetical all top researcher lab. This is what occurs when you improve your ASARA model. Whereas, 2.5x is the estimate for replacing the actual lab with an all top lab.
This still gives a lower than 4x value, but I think if you plug in reasonable log-normals 4x will be within your 90% CI, and so it seems fine.
Thanks, great catch. Corrected this.
And i realise Ryan’s seemingly assuming we only use some of the gains for better qualitative capabilities. So that would further reduce the discrepancy.