Most bets have 2 sides, and if you can’t get paid on one, then you can bet the other. If all bets are off in an apocalypse, then you bet on it by offering bets on non-apocalypse. Take out loans—you get the value now, and don’t have to pay back in the apocalypse. To operationalize, you need a bounded time for your p(doom), of course.
My p(doom) for the next 2 decades is fairly low (as is my probability we’re in a major short-term bubble), so I am leveraged only in order to invest more. If p(doom) was higher for me, I’d be leveraged for consumption—investing in experiences, at the risk of later poverty if doom does not obtain.
Hmm the problem is that you’re “bet” is now not just measuring p(doom), it is tracking a whole lot of stuff! Things like the end of capitalism vs the end of humanity are even indistinguishable under loans.
Most bets have 2 sides, and if you can’t get paid on one, then you can bet the other. If all bets are off in an apocalypse, then you bet on it by offering bets on non-apocalypse. Take out loans—you get the value now, and don’t have to pay back in the apocalypse. To operationalize, you need a bounded time for your p(doom), of course.
My p(doom) for the next 2 decades is fairly low (as is my probability we’re in a major short-term bubble), so I am leveraged only in order to invest more. If p(doom) was higher for me, I’d be leveraged for consumption—investing in experiences, at the risk of later poverty if doom does not obtain.
Hmm the problem is that you’re “bet” is now not just measuring p(doom), it is tracking a whole lot of stuff! Things like the end of capitalism vs the end of humanity are even indistinguishable under loans.
sure. that makes it an even better bet—you win (by not paying) in doom scenarios, AND in some non-doom scenarios.