After some more thought, I agree even more. A large part of management is an ad-hoc solution to human alignment. And as I predict agents to be unreliable as long as technical alignment is unsolved, more management by humans will be needed. Still, productivity may increase a lot.
Likelihood: maybe 5-30% off the top of my head, obviously depends a lot on operationalization.
Time: however long transformer-based LLMs (trained on prediction + a little RLHF, and minor variations thereon) remain the primary paradigm.
After some more thought, I agree even more. A large part of management is an ad-hoc solution to human alignment. And as I predict agents to be unreliable as long as technical alignment is unsolved, more management by humans will be needed. Still, productivity may increase a lot.