Agreed that a WBE is no more aligned or alignable than a DL system, and this is a poor way for the community to spend its weirdness points. The good news is that in practical terms it is a non-issue. There is no way WBE will happen before superintelligence. I assign it a possibility of well under 1%.
Well, I disagree strongly with metacalus. Anyway, the most likely way that “human brain emulation [will] be the first successful route to human-level digital intelligence” would be using an understanding of the brain to engineer an intelligence (such as the Numenta approach), not a complete, faithful, exact reproduction of a specific human’s brain.
metaculus community is terribly calibrated, and not by accident—it’s simply the median of community predictions. it’s normal to think you disagree with the median prediction by a lot.
agreed. realistically we’d only approach anything resembling WBE by attempting behavior cloning AI, which nicely demonstrates the issue you’d have after becoming a WBE. my point in making this comment is simply that it doesn’t even help in theory, assuming we somehow manage to not make an agent ASI and instead go straight for advanced neuron emulation. if we really, really tried, it is possible to go for WBE first, but at this point it’s pretty obvious we can reach hard ASI without it, so nobody in charge of a team like deepmind is going to go for WBE when they can just focus directly on ai capability plus a dash of safety to make the nerds happy.
Agreed that a WBE is no more aligned or alignable than a DL system, and this is a poor way for the community to spend its weirdness points. The good news is that in practical terms it is a non-issue. There is no way WBE will happen before superintelligence. I assign it a possibility of well under 1%.
I think you are overconfident. Metaculus gives it 5%:
Well, I disagree strongly with metacalus. Anyway, the most likely way that “human brain emulation [will] be the first successful route to human-level digital intelligence” would be using an understanding of the brain to engineer an intelligence (such as the Numenta approach), not a complete, faithful, exact reproduction of a specific human’s brain.
Please add your prediction to Metaculus then.
metaculus community is terribly calibrated, and not by accident—it’s simply the median of community predictions. it’s normal to think you disagree with the median prediction by a lot.
agreed. realistically we’d only approach anything resembling WBE by attempting behavior cloning AI, which nicely demonstrates the issue you’d have after becoming a WBE. my point in making this comment is simply that it doesn’t even help in theory, assuming we somehow manage to not make an agent ASI and instead go straight for advanced neuron emulation. if we really, really tried, it is possible to go for WBE first, but at this point it’s pretty obvious we can reach hard ASI without it, so nobody in charge of a team like deepmind is going to go for WBE when they can just focus directly on ai capability plus a dash of safety to make the nerds happy.