Can someone who is already trading on Polymarket or is planning to do so soon tell me if there are any hidden fees (or ways my money might be locked up for longer than I expect) if I trade on Polymarket? Four years ago I got hit by enormous ether gas fees on Augur, which still made my bet positive EV, but only barely so (I had to wait quite a while for the gas cost to go that low and was loosing out on investing the money and my attention). I plan to bet ~$3K-$7K and think Kamala Harris has a 45% chance of winning. Is that enough for all the transaction costs to vanish?
You should be good (though I have only bet once; haven’t withdrawn yet, so can’t guarantee it). I think the gist of it is that Polymarket uses layer 2 and so is cheaper.
I ended up dodging the bullet of loosing money here, because I was a bit worried that Nate Silvers model might have been behind, because the last poll then was on the 23rd. I was also too busy with other important work to resolve my confusions before the election. My current two best guesses are:
The French whale did not have an edge,
The neighbour polling method is a just-so story to spread confusion, but he actually did have an edge
I don’t understand correctly how this neighbour polling method is supposed to work.
In any case, if Polymarket is still legal in 4 years I expect the prediction market on the election to be efficient relative to me and I will not bet on it.
Can someone who is already trading on Polymarket or is planning to do so soon tell me if there are any hidden fees (or ways my money might be locked up for longer than I expect) if I trade on Polymarket? Four years ago I got hit by enormous ether gas fees on Augur, which still made my bet positive EV, but only barely so (I had to wait quite a while for the gas cost to go that low and was loosing out on investing the money and my attention). I plan to bet ~$3K-$7K and think Kamala Harris has a 45% chance of winning. Is that enough for all the transaction costs to vanish?
You should be good (though I have only bet once; haven’t withdrawn yet, so can’t guarantee it). I think the gist of it is that Polymarket uses layer 2 and so is cheaper.
There are no transaction costs if you have USDC on Polygon. Onboarding USDC into Polygon might bear costs but they are minimal.
I ended up dodging the bullet of loosing money here, because I was a bit worried that Nate Silvers model might have been behind, because the last poll then was on the 23rd. I was also too busy with other important work to resolve my confusions before the election. My current two best guesses are:
The French whale did not have an edge,
The neighbour polling method is a just-so story to spread confusion, but he actually did have an edge
I don’t understand correctly how this neighbour polling method is supposed to work.
In any case, if Polymarket is still legal in 4 years I expect the prediction market on the election to be efficient relative to me and I will not bet on it.