Book was written in 1981, there have been many wars since then. Does the methodology predict those wars? Were there wars it predicts that did not happen?
That’s a great question (mirrored by virtually all the other comments too)! I know Bueno de Mesquita has made a few high-profile predictions which did turn out to be directionally true, but I’m unaware of any quantitative verification. It shouldn’t be so hard to perform one, though, so either one exists or I could be the one to do it. I’ll see what I can find the time for. Thanks for the idea!
Book was written in 1981, there have been many wars since then. Does the methodology predict those wars? Were there wars it predicts that did not happen?
That’s a great question (mirrored by virtually all the other comments too)! I know Bueno de Mesquita has made a few high-profile predictions which did turn out to be directionally true, but I’m unaware of any quantitative verification. It shouldn’t be so hard to perform one, though, so either one exists or I could be the one to do it. I’ll see what I can find the time for. Thanks for the idea!