The leader, platform, and constitutency of the Trump opposition all need to take shape together. It’s a complex problem, and we shouldn’t expect a simple solution.
One of the hard parts, I think, is what seems to be a decline in single-issue voters. In the past, women, blacks, gays, Jews, trade unionists, environmentalists, and so on seem to have been more focused on their particular issues. That meant that you could promise the benefits that each desired without as many tradeoffs. Now, both MAGA and the progressive left seem to be “multi-issue Blobs,” where you either support all their ideas, or you’re their opponent. With this, willingness to crash down the established order seems to be something these Blobs endorse, either as a negotiating strategy or as an end in itself.
So it seems to me that the real opponent in the next election isn’t Trump. It’s the Blob.
And that means finding a compatible set of single-issue swing voter/independent/inconsistent voter constituencies that aren’t already diehard Republican MAGA. Off the top of my head, the planks might look like this:
The rent’s too damned high: YIMBY + affordable housing (abundance agenda)
Healthcare’s too damned expensive: Bounties on blockbuster drugs, so the consumer experiences them as cheap/free. Don’t just approve meds that are approved in other countries, allow patients to get prescriptions from providers in other countries with quality healthcare systems via telemedicine. Promise to train more doctors and nurses by expanding residency positions and subsidizing hospitals that achieve greater throughput in the number of resident doctors they train.
I can’t afford kids: Subsidize IVF, the cost of pre and postnatal care, childcare, encourage subsidized maternity/paternity leave, tutoring, outpatient clinical services for kids with disabilities, continue and expand the Trump accounts.
American refuge for religious minorities: Less focus on Israel/Palestine, more focus on safety and freedom for American Jews and Palestinians. Make America Safe for Jews Again. Make America Safe for Muslims. Promise to aggressively crack down on terrorism against religious communities of any stripe. Stand against racial and religious profiling in policing.
Law and order for liberals: More legal immigration pathways coupled with stronger border enforcement. Stronger anti-drug policing, more policing in low-income neighborhoods, not to attract police officers but to get the support of those communities, which often favor more policing action. Tough on burglary, public drug use, and vandalism.
Blue collar utopia: Learn a trade via apprenticeship by working for the government rebuilding our crumbling infrastructure, and maintaining run-down houses or building new ones, especially in the poorest communities in America. Such programs should also emphasize the skills to building your own small business or working for yourself.
Prosecute your local pedophile: Cracking down on pedophilia, deep sex fakes, and reshaping the rape/consent discourse: we’re going to take rape accusations damned seriously, but we’re also going to be the party of innocent until proven guilty.
I’m sick of the anger: You can say whatever you want online, but we’re going to make social media companies fix their algorithms and turn down the controversy, stop rewarding the most inflammatory speech. It doesn’t matter if there’s something that can actually be done productively here. It’s just important to talk like you’re going to do something about it.
Reagan Republicans: anti-tariff, low taxes, deregulation, independent Fed, strong focus on IP, property rights, and an emphasis on “surgical improvements to government efficiency.”
Tribes: pro tribal sovereignty, hammer on recognizing historic injustices with boarding schools, get the federal government out of regulating tribal economies, and insofar as possible, subsidize them for improving tribal governance. But zero “land acknowledgements.”
Progressive, but sick of social justice: Talk about encouraging progressives and liberals to join the police, military, and to work in prisons as guards/wardens. Just show up, be honorable, do a good job, be the change. Strong freedom of speech angle, anti-DEI, pro intellectual freedom vibe, but there need to be concrete and vivid proposals on how to address racism and sexism in hiring.
I went to college and all I got was accused of turning in an AI-generated essay: Demand that universities create a formal plan for adapting their educational program to be AI-compatible, ending the witch hunts for AI using students. Require them to educate their students on what career opportunities specific majors do and don’t qualify them for. Create programs for voluntary relinquishing of social media under the “collective action problem” thesis: make universities create a “phone-free friendship” program.
The candidate needs to position themselves as a “goes-without-saying” Democrat, but what they talk about during the general election needs to be 95% this kind of stuff that’s targeted at independent, swing and inconsistent voters and spend 5% of your time reassuring the liberal base. During the primaries, you build support with the “groups,” which also are happily mostly pretty single-issue. But you don’t treat those groups as your ticket to the Presidency, just as a stepping stone to the nomination. Whichever reasonable candidate is most clearly making that distinction seems the most promising to me.
Gavin Newsom is pretty good here. So is Rubin Gallego. I think a Newsom/Gallego ticket would be promising.
what they talk about during the general election needs to be
The enemy gets a vote. Whatever you plan to make your focus in the general, if there’s some unpopular-with-the-middle position you take in the primary, that’s likely to be what they attack you on.
The leader, platform, and constitutency of the Trump opposition all need to take shape together. It’s a complex problem, and we shouldn’t expect a simple solution.
One of the hard parts, I think, is what seems to be a decline in single-issue voters. In the past, women, blacks, gays, Jews, trade unionists, environmentalists, and so on seem to have been more focused on their particular issues. That meant that you could promise the benefits that each desired without as many tradeoffs. Now, both MAGA and the progressive left seem to be “multi-issue Blobs,” where you either support all their ideas, or you’re their opponent. With this, willingness to crash down the established order seems to be something these Blobs endorse, either as a negotiating strategy or as an end in itself.
So it seems to me that the real opponent in the next election isn’t Trump. It’s the Blob.
And that means finding a compatible set of single-issue swing voter/independent/inconsistent voter constituencies that aren’t already diehard Republican MAGA. Off the top of my head, the planks might look like this:
The rent’s too damned high: YIMBY + affordable housing (abundance agenda)
Healthcare’s too damned expensive: Bounties on blockbuster drugs, so the consumer experiences them as cheap/free. Don’t just approve meds that are approved in other countries, allow patients to get prescriptions from providers in other countries with quality healthcare systems via telemedicine. Promise to train more doctors and nurses by expanding residency positions and subsidizing hospitals that achieve greater throughput in the number of resident doctors they train.
I can’t afford kids: Subsidize IVF, the cost of pre and postnatal care, childcare, encourage subsidized maternity/paternity leave, tutoring, outpatient clinical services for kids with disabilities, continue and expand the Trump accounts.
American refuge for religious minorities: Less focus on Israel/Palestine, more focus on safety and freedom for American Jews and Palestinians. Make America Safe for Jews Again. Make America Safe for Muslims. Promise to aggressively crack down on terrorism against religious communities of any stripe. Stand against racial and religious profiling in policing.
Law and order for liberals: More legal immigration pathways coupled with stronger border enforcement. Stronger anti-drug policing, more policing in low-income neighborhoods, not to attract police officers but to get the support of those communities, which often favor more policing action. Tough on burglary, public drug use, and vandalism.
Blue collar utopia: Learn a trade via apprenticeship by working for the government rebuilding our crumbling infrastructure, and maintaining run-down houses or building new ones, especially in the poorest communities in America. Such programs should also emphasize the skills to building your own small business or working for yourself.
Prosecute your local pedophile: Cracking down on pedophilia, deep sex fakes, and reshaping the rape/consent discourse: we’re going to take rape accusations damned seriously, but we’re also going to be the party of innocent until proven guilty.
I’m sick of the anger: You can say whatever you want online, but we’re going to make social media companies fix their algorithms and turn down the controversy, stop rewarding the most inflammatory speech. It doesn’t matter if there’s something that can actually be done productively here. It’s just important to talk like you’re going to do something about it.
Reagan Republicans: anti-tariff, low taxes, deregulation, independent Fed, strong focus on IP, property rights, and an emphasis on “surgical improvements to government efficiency.”
Tribes: pro tribal sovereignty, hammer on recognizing historic injustices with boarding schools, get the federal government out of regulating tribal economies, and insofar as possible, subsidize them for improving tribal governance. But zero “land acknowledgements.”
Progressive, but sick of social justice: Talk about encouraging progressives and liberals to join the police, military, and to work in prisons as guards/wardens. Just show up, be honorable, do a good job, be the change. Strong freedom of speech angle, anti-DEI, pro intellectual freedom vibe, but there need to be concrete and vivid proposals on how to address racism and sexism in hiring.
I went to college and all I got was accused of turning in an AI-generated essay: Demand that universities create a formal plan for adapting their educational program to be AI-compatible, ending the witch hunts for AI using students. Require them to educate their students on what career opportunities specific majors do and don’t qualify them for. Create programs for voluntary relinquishing of social media under the “collective action problem” thesis: make universities create a “phone-free friendship” program.
The candidate needs to position themselves as a “goes-without-saying” Democrat, but what they talk about during the general election needs to be 95% this kind of stuff that’s targeted at independent, swing and inconsistent voters and spend 5% of your time reassuring the liberal base. During the primaries, you build support with the “groups,” which also are happily mostly pretty single-issue. But you don’t treat those groups as your ticket to the Presidency, just as a stepping stone to the nomination. Whichever reasonable candidate is most clearly making that distinction seems the most promising to me.
Gavin Newsom is pretty good here. So is Rubin Gallego. I think a Newsom/Gallego ticket would be promising.
The enemy gets a vote. Whatever you plan to make your focus in the general, if there’s some unpopular-with-the-middle position you take in the primary, that’s likely to be what they attack you on.
Very much agree with the blob being a problem on the left, but I’m unconvinced there is a blob on the right. There’s at least some evidence suggesting that the right has more ideological diversity than the left (https://bpspsychub.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/bjso.12665).