With noticeably different governance and social reactions in different locations, I wonder if this situation will spur migration in the coming few years. At what point is it worth moving to somewhere with more sane (still broken; nowhere is perfect) government and social behaviors, even if it’s more distant from your personal networks?
Seattle and the Bay Area are looking pretty good compared to New York and Florida (this could reverse over the next few months, but it’s unlikely that by end of year there’ll be no difference in terms how we evaluate their reactions and outcomes).
Similarly for urban vs more spread-out locations. Especially as many of us learn that we CAN be fairly productive anywhere there’s internet service, I wonder if more of us will opt to be around fewer strangers standing so close all the time.
I predict not much movement—people have a learned helplessness about governments, and easily forget that they have choices. And the advantages of cities remain powerful. And, importantly, most people don’t actually have quite as much future financial and social freedom as LW readers tend to.
My response here is pretty useless but I have relevant personal experience and not many human interactions recently so I might as well...
I’m an EU citizen and as such I benefit from almost 30 sovereign countries competing over my presence (I could also move to a non-EU country but staying within EU is much easier). This has been my perspective for quite a few years. I have recently moved to a new country mostly because it offers low taxation for high-income individuals and the bureaucracy is generally friendly towards expat entrepreneurs and freelancers. I keep my investments/savings and even current accounts in more dependable countries.
Following reports of how different countries respond to the pandemic, I’ve been also considering moving to another EU country for a month or two and staying there in an AirBnB. The primary criteria would be the political response to the crisis (the more rational the better; the less constraining individual freedom the better) and expected quality of healthcare, should I require it. (Another factor is possible barriers when I try to come back to my country of residence.) The one thing stopping me from doing that is lack of reliable data that would help me estimate the risks.
I have heard, and give some credit to, the theory that silicon valley tech company culture played a role in the bay area’s response being relatively early. Tech companies were making contingency plans and sending their employees home, well before there was any kind of government action here. I don’t know what fraction of employees / day-to-day interactions that represents. But e.g. all Google employees working from home seems like it could have played a nontrivial role in Mountain View, which was the epicenter of the bay area coronavirus outbreak.
Hard to separate government from cultural/behavioral issues—they reinforce each other. But variance in behaviors regionally (differences in how quickly governments signaled action and how well populations complied) seems likely to be a significant driver of variation of outcomes.
Wild guesses: 30% from different patterns of trade and interaction with the broader infected world, 25% from different social structures and living situations (types of corner store and shopping/entertainment mechanisms), 45% from behavioral differences and reaction time. I don’t think I can defend these guesses, and would be interested to hear other perspectives and missing causes of variation.
Note that we don’t actually know yet if NYC is all that much worse off than San Francisco. It looks that way currently, but a lot can change in a few weeks.
With noticeably different governance and social reactions in different locations, I wonder if this situation will spur migration in the coming few years. At what point is it worth moving to somewhere with more sane (still broken; nowhere is perfect) government and social behaviors, even if it’s more distant from your personal networks?
Seattle and the Bay Area are looking pretty good compared to New York and Florida (this could reverse over the next few months, but it’s unlikely that by end of year there’ll be no difference in terms how we evaluate their reactions and outcomes).
Similarly for urban vs more spread-out locations. Especially as many of us learn that we CAN be fairly productive anywhere there’s internet service, I wonder if more of us will opt to be around fewer strangers standing so close all the time.
I predict not much movement—people have a learned helplessness about governments, and easily forget that they have choices. And the advantages of cities remain powerful. And, importantly, most people don’t actually have quite as much future financial and social freedom as LW readers tend to.
My response here is pretty useless but I have relevant personal experience and not many human interactions recently so I might as well...
I’m an EU citizen and as such I benefit from almost 30 sovereign countries competing over my presence (I could also move to a non-EU country but staying within EU is much easier). This has been my perspective for quite a few years. I have recently moved to a new country mostly because it offers low taxation for high-income individuals and the bureaucracy is generally friendly towards expat entrepreneurs and freelancers. I keep my investments/savings and even current accounts in more dependable countries.
Following reports of how different countries respond to the pandemic, I’ve been also considering moving to another EU country for a month or two and staying there in an AirBnB. The primary criteria would be the political response to the crisis (the more rational the better; the less constraining individual freedom the better) and expected quality of healthcare, should I require it. (Another factor is possible barriers when I try to come back to my country of residence.) The one thing stopping me from doing that is lack of reliable data that would help me estimate the risks.
So how much of the differences between the Bay Area and NY do you attribute to a difference in government action?
I have heard, and give some credit to, the theory that silicon valley tech company culture played a role in the bay area’s response being relatively early. Tech companies were making contingency plans and sending their employees home, well before there was any kind of government action here. I don’t know what fraction of employees / day-to-day interactions that represents. But e.g. all Google employees working from home seems like it could have played a nontrivial role in Mountain View, which was the epicenter of the bay area coronavirus outbreak.
Hard to separate government from cultural/behavioral issues—they reinforce each other. But variance in behaviors regionally (differences in how quickly governments signaled action and how well populations complied) seems likely to be a significant driver of variation of outcomes.
Wild guesses: 30% from different patterns of trade and interaction with the broader infected world, 25% from different social structures and living situations (types of corner store and shopping/entertainment mechanisms), 45% from behavioral differences and reaction time. I don’t think I can defend these guesses, and would be interested to hear other perspectives and missing causes of variation.
Note that we don’t actually know yet if NYC is all that much worse off than San Francisco. It looks that way currently, but a lot can change in a few weeks.