I think there are two separate questions here: one, whether American society could substantially break down, and two, whether Trump could remain in power despite losing the election. I don’t have an answer to either, but
Sam Harris, who is the only thinker I value that I’ve heard talk about this, thinks the risk for the first is serious.
Nate Silver et. al.’s take on Trump stealing the election was basically (1) he’ll probably try; and (2) whether or not it can work depends mostly on how close it is. It would probably have to be within 0.5%, so if Biden’s lead remains roughly this large until election day, then (according to Nate) there is most likely nothing Trump can do. (I think that was discussed on this podcast.)
I would be curious what sources other people think are relevant here.
I think there are two separate questions here: one, whether American society could substantially break down, and two, whether Trump could remain in power despite losing the election. I don’t have an answer to either, but
Sam Harris, who is the only thinker I value that I’ve heard talk about this, thinks the risk for the first is serious.
Nate Silver et. al.’s take on Trump stealing the election was basically (1) he’ll probably try; and (2) whether or not it can work depends mostly on how close it is. It would probably have to be within 0.5%, so if Biden’s lead remains roughly this large until election day, then (according to Nate) there is most likely nothing Trump can do. (I think that was discussed on this podcast.)
I would be curious what sources other people think are relevant here.
Sources / Link Brainstorming:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-if-trump-loses-and-wont-leave/
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/07/07/many-americans-are-ready-to-question-the-result-of-the-presidential-election
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/08/18/how-donald-trump-polarised-postal-voting
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/09/03/americas-ugly-election
https://www.economist.com/united-states/2020/10/03/would-the-supreme-court-hand-donald-trump-a-second-term
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/10/10/the-spreading-scourge-of-voter-suppression