We have lots of experimental data showing overconfidence; what experimental data show a consistent underconfidence, in a way that a person could use that data to correct their error? This would be a lot more persuasive to me than the mere hypothetical possibility of underconfidence.
Underconfidence is surely very common in the general population. It’s usually referred to “shyness”, “tentativeness”, “depression”—or by other names besides “underconfidence”. This is part of the audience of the self-help books that encourage people to be more confident.
E.g. see: “The trouble with overconfidence.” on PubMed.
I believe there were some nice experiments having to do with overcorrection, and I believe those were in “Heuristics and Biases” (the 2003 volume), but I’m on a trip right now and away from my books.
We have lots of experimental data showing overconfidence; what experimental data show a consistent underconfidence, in a way that a person could use that data to correct their error? This would be a lot more persuasive to me than the mere hypothetical possibility of underconfidence.
Underconfidence is surely very common in the general population. It’s usually referred to “shyness”, “tentativeness”, “depression”—or by other names besides “underconfidence”. This is part of the audience of the self-help books that encourage people to be more confident.
E.g. see: “The trouble with overconfidence.” on PubMed.
For underconfidence and depression, see:
“Depressive cognition: a test of depressive realism versus negativity using general knowledge questions.” on PubMed.
Underconfidence in visual perceptual judgments:
“The role of individual differences in the accuracy of confidence judgments.” on PubMed.
More on that, see:
“Realism of confidence in sensory discrimination.” on PubMed.
I believe there were some nice experiments having to do with overcorrection, and I believe those were in “Heuristics and Biases” (the 2003 volume), but I’m on a trip right now and away from my books.