I predict with 70% confidence that, within a year, Neuralink will be placed in a human and will have basic functionality. If I’m wrong, I think it’ll mainly be because of Neuralink not being legally allowed to conduct a human trial, or due to long term safety concerns as opposed to short term ones.
Xela!2026 here from the future, who just realized that Xela!2021 made a prediction in this post, and specifically one that seems too optimistic:
It looks like[1] it took two years (to the month, as it happens) from posting for Neuralink to get FDA approval for human trials, started trials in September, and then by late January implanted in a human. By late February Musk said the first participant was controlling a mouse by thought. I also have seen much more recent tweets from a successful patient (they’re quite heartwarming because his little daughter are in them).
My current thoughts:
Obviously I shouldn’t have put 70% on them even getting approval in a year! What was I thinking‽ I really don’t think I would’ve done that today, this isn’t just hindsight bias (besides hindsight about how long and hard getting approval is generally)
Neat, I was right about why I was wrong. I find it highly likely that if approval was magically granted the instant I posted, the February milestone would’ve happened by May 2022.
As commentors pointed out, Neuralink isn’t as groundbreaking fundamental-tech-wise as I thought (as opposed to Musk ‘just’ pushing a product to market and optimizing the practicality, which to be clear would be nothing to snuff at). I don’t have any Neuralink-specific thoughts about this, but I feel like I’ve semirecently learned enough neuroscience that the fundamental technology is just no longer so surprising—Xela_2021 was shocked by the comment that we’ve had BCI mouse control for 3 (now 3.5) decades, but I think I (Xela!2026) would’ve put my median at 2015 with significant probability on it having happened sometime in 1980-2000, and even more on the fundamental tech capability being there even if nobody actually did it. Not sure to describe the generator, it just rhymes with other stuff I’ve seen neuroscience do that had already been achieved before 2015.
The FDA rejected Neuralink’s 2022 application to pursue human clinical trials, citing “major safety concerns involving the device’s lithium battery; the potential for the implant’s tiny wires to migrate to other areas of the brain; and questions over whether and how the device can be removed without damaging brain tissue”,[94] but then approved it in May 2023.[95] In September 2023, Neuralink began its first human trials under an investigational device exemption from the FDA.[96][97]
and
On January 29, 2024, Musk announced that Neuralink had successfully implanted a Neuralink device in a human and that the patient was recovering
Xela!2026 here from the future, who just realized that Xela!2021 made a prediction in this post, and specifically one that seems too optimistic:
It looks like[1] it took two years (to the month, as it happens) from posting for Neuralink to get FDA approval for human trials, started trials in September, and then by late January implanted in a human. By late February Musk said the first participant was controlling a mouse by thought. I also have seen much more recent tweets from a successful patient (they’re quite heartwarming because his little daughter are in them).
My current thoughts:
Obviously I shouldn’t have put 70% on them even getting approval in a year! What was I thinking‽ I really don’t think I would’ve done that today, this isn’t just hindsight bias (besides hindsight about how long and hard getting approval is generally)
Neat, I was right about why I was wrong. I find it highly likely that if approval was magically granted the instant I posted, the February milestone would’ve happened by May 2022.
As commentors pointed out, Neuralink isn’t as groundbreaking fundamental-tech-wise as I thought (as opposed to Musk ‘just’ pushing a product to market and optimizing the practicality, which to be clear would be nothing to snuff at). I don’t have any Neuralink-specific thoughts about this, but I feel like I’ve semirecently learned enough neuroscience that the fundamental technology is just no longer so surprising—Xela_2021 was shocked by the comment that we’ve had BCI mouse control for 3 (now 3.5) decades, but I think I (Xela!2026) would’ve put my median at 2015 with significant probability on it having happened sometime in 1980-2000, and even more on the fundamental tech capability being there even if nobody actually did it. Not sure to describe the generator, it just rhymes with other stuff I’ve seen neuroscience do that had already been achieved before 2015.
From Wikipedia:
and