China has fewer than 100,000 COVID cases this year (official estimate): 30% → Hold.
This is graded as not happening. I think it’s pretty ambiguous. Yes the official statistics simply started ignoring reality, but there were various officials giving out ‘estimates’ that were several orders of magnitude higher than the threshold.
The reality could also have gone either way.
I think if you interpret the scenario that happened as resolving to no, then 30% is too high, because there is too big a risk of the official statistics simply ignoring reality, so now you need to win quite the parlay. If you don’t need that, 30% is too low, the dam broke rather late if anything.
I’m having trouble parsing this, but it sounds like you might have the inequalities reversed? As in, if it’s graded as not happening, then it’s graded as “China had more than 100,000 cases” but it sounds like you might think it’s graded as “China had fewer than 100,000 cases”.
I’m having trouble parsing this, but it sounds like you might have the inequalities reversed? As in, if it’s graded as not happening, then it’s graded as “China had more than 100,000 cases” but it sounds like you might think it’s graded as “China had fewer than 100,000 cases”.
Oh, yeah, guess so. That’s how much I don’t know how this should be graded!