I’d suggest changing the title from “AI Girlfriends Won’t Matter Much” to “AI girlfriends won’t fundamentally alter the trend” since that’s closer to what I interpret you to be saying, and it’s more accurate. There are many things that allow long-run trends to continue while still “mattering” a lot in an absolute sense. For example, electricity likely didn’t substantially alter the per-capita GDP trajectory of the United States but I would strongly object to the thesis that “electricity doesn’t matter much”.
ETA: To clarify, I’m saying that electricity allowed the per capita GDP trend to continue, not that it had a negligible counterfactual effect on GDP.
I interpreted it to be ’clearly electric is the mechanism by which GDP went up. It didn’t alter the trend but still seems like an important part of how the trend transpired. Probably the same with AI relationships
No, that’s not what I meant. I meant that electricity allowed the GDP per capita trend to continue at roughly the same rate, rather than changing the trend. Without electricity we would probably have had significantly slower economic growth over the last 150 years.
I’d suggest changing the title from “AI Girlfriends Won’t Matter Much” to “AI girlfriends won’t fundamentally alter the trend” since that’s closer to what I interpret you to be saying, and it’s more accurate. There are many things that allow long-run trends to continue while still “mattering” a lot in an absolute sense. For example, electricity likely didn’t substantially alter the per-capita GDP trajectory of the United States but I would strongly object to the thesis that “electricity doesn’t matter much”.
ETA: To clarify, I’m saying that electricity allowed the per capita GDP trend to continue, not that it had a negligible counterfactual effect on GDP.
Is your contention that without electricity US GDP/capita would be say within 70% of what it is now?
(Roll to doubt)
I interpreted it to be ’clearly electric is the mechanism by which GDP went up. It didn’t alter the trend but still seems like an important part of how the trend transpired. Probably the same with AI relationships
No, that’s not what I meant. I meant that electricity allowed the GDP per capita trend to continue at roughly the same rate, rather than changing the trend. Without electricity we would probably have had significantly slower economic growth over the last 150 years.