I guess you disagree about some combination of: (a) Under conditions of transparency and slowdown, with companies required to make solid safety cases etc., control-based safety cases will be made strong enough to work up until about top human expert level AI
(b) If so, alignment will be adequately solved within a couple of years?
If b is false then we’d have a similar scenario but stretched out over more years. If a is false then we’d need to pause at a lower level of capability than top expert level, whichever level is low enough that control works.
If you want control that works, I think you need to turn the clock back, before chain of thought and reasoning models. See my comment to @Vladimir_Nesov. Vladimir has a nuanced defense of his position, but I think OpenAI’s o-series (i.e. GPT-5) may have been the point of no return.
I guess you disagree about some combination of:
(a) Under conditions of transparency and slowdown, with companies required to make solid safety cases etc., control-based safety cases will be made strong enough to work up until about top human expert level AI
(b) If so, alignment will be adequately solved within a couple of years?
If b is false then we’d have a similar scenario but stretched out over more years.
If a is false then we’d need to pause at a lower level of capability than top expert level, whichever level is low enough that control works.
If you want control that works, I think you need to turn the clock back, before chain of thought and reasoning models. See my comment to @Vladimir_Nesov. Vladimir has a nuanced defense of his position, but I think OpenAI’s o-series (i.e. GPT-5) may have been the point of no return.