Good post. You changed my mind moderately (and somehow did so without presenting many new-to-me facts/arguments, but perhaps by combatting an irrational sense of it couldn’t happen here [edit: or more charitably to myself, perhaps just by causing me to think about it]). Focusing on America, thinking about it, I have credence ~40% in a Republican trifecta in 2025 and credence ~30% that Republicans do wild bad stuff in 2025–2026 (mostly from Republican-trifecta worlds but also some from Republican-president-but-no-trifecta worlds). I probably shouldn’t try to do anything about this but it’s worth Noticing.
and somehow did so without presenting many new-to-me facts/arguments, but perhaps by combatting an irrational sense of it couldn’t happen here [edit: or more charitably to myself, perhaps just by causing me to think about it]
I think there should be a post with higher quality argument, since I agree about likely futures but it’s not reasonable to expect people to be convinced if the argument was lacking precision. I want the version of this analysis with #[inline_all], or so.
Good post. You changed my mind moderately (and somehow did so without presenting many new-to-me facts/arguments, but perhaps by combatting an irrational sense of it couldn’t happen here [edit: or more charitably to myself, perhaps just by causing me to think about it]). Focusing on America, thinking about it, I have credence ~40% in a Republican trifecta in 2025 and credence ~30% that Republicans do wild bad stuff in 2025–2026 (mostly from Republican-trifecta worlds but also some from Republican-president-but-no-trifecta worlds). I probably shouldn’t try to do anything about this but it’s worth Noticing.
I think there should be a post with higher quality argument, since I agree about likely futures but it’s not reasonable to expect people to be convinced if the argument was lacking precision. I want the version of this analysis with #[inline_all], or so.