For the sake of argument, I’ll grant that correctly formulated anthropic priors can reduce the bias in posterior estimates for the possibility of ET contact/confrontation: but the simple consequence of the math is that the influence of an anthropic prior decreases as the AGI gains more scientific knowledge. An AGI which has an (1-epsilon)-complete understanding of science, yet does not employ anthropic reasoning will have asymptotically equivalent estimates to an AGI which has an (1-epsilon)-complete understanding of science and employs correct anthropic reasoning.
How does a complete understanding of physics allow you to asymptotically approach “correct” solutions to anthropic problems? We can already imagine reformulating these problems in toy universes with completely known physics (like cellular automata), but that doesn’t seem to help us solve them...
For the sake of argument, I’ll grant that correctly formulated anthropic priors can reduce the bias in posterior estimates for the possibility of ET contact/confrontation: but the simple consequence of the math is that the influence of an anthropic prior decreases as the AGI gains more scientific knowledge. An AGI which has an (1-epsilon)-complete understanding of science, yet does not employ anthropic reasoning will have asymptotically equivalent estimates to an AGI which has an (1-epsilon)-complete understanding of science and employs correct anthropic reasoning.
How does a complete understanding of physics allow you to asymptotically approach “correct” solutions to anthropic problems? We can already imagine reformulating these problems in toy universes with completely known physics (like cellular automata), but that doesn’t seem to help us solve them...