By “solve”, what do you mean? Like, provably secure systems, create a AAA game from scratch, etc?
I feel like any system that could do that would implicitly have what the OP says these systems might lack, but you seem to be in half agreeance with them. Am I misunderstanding something?
By “Solve” I mean “Can substitute for a really good software engineer and/or ML research engineer” in frontier AI company R&D processes. So e.g. instead of having teams of engineers led by a scientist, they can (if they choose) have teams of AIs led by a scientist.
TBC, I’m at “Probably” not “Definitely.” My 50% mark is in 2028 now, so I have a decent amount of probability mass (maybe 30%?) stretching across the 2030′s.
By “solve”, what do you mean? Like, provably secure systems, create a AAA game from scratch, etc?
I feel like any system that could do that would implicitly have what the OP says these systems might lack, but you seem to be in half agreeance with them. Am I misunderstanding something?
By “Solve” I mean “Can substitute for a really good software engineer and/or ML research engineer” in frontier AI company R&D processes. So e.g. instead of having teams of engineers led by a scientist, they can (if they choose) have teams of AIs led by a scientist.
Ah, okay.
I’ll throw in my moderately strong disagreement for future bayes points, respect for the short term, unambiguous prediction!
TBC, I’m at “Probably” not “Definitely.” My 50% mark is in 2028 now, so I have a decent amount of probability mass (maybe 30%?) stretching across the 2030′s.
Gotcha, you didn’t sound OVER confident so I assumed it was much-less-than-certain, still refreshingly concrete