I think that getting good at the tag-teamable tasks is already enough to start to significantly accelerate AI R&D? Idk. I don’t really buy your distinction/abstraction yet enough to make it an important part of my model.
I think it won’t work (and isn’t working today) for the same reasons John outlines here with regards to HCH/”the infinite bureaucracy”. (tl;dr: this requires competent problem factorization, but problem factorization is nontrivial and can’t be relegated to an afterthought.)
Thinking about this, I think a generalized crux with John Wentworth et al is probably on how differently we see bureaucracies, and he sees them as terrible, whereas I see them as both quite flawed and has real problems, but are also wonderful tools to have that keeps the modern civilization’s growth engine stable, and the thing that keeps the light on, so I see bureaucracies as way more important for civilization’s success than John Wentworth believes.
One reason for this is a lot of the success cases of bureaucracies look like no news can be made, so success isn’t obvious, whereas bureaucratic failure is obvious.
I think the difference between real bureaucracies and HCH is that in real functioning bureaucracies should be elements capable to say “screw this arbitrary problem factorization, I’m doing what’s useful” and bosses of bureaucracy should be able to say “we all understand that otherwise system wouldn’t be able to work”.
I think that getting good at the tag-teamable tasks is already enough to start to significantly accelerate AI R&D? Idk. I don’t really buy your distinction/abstraction yet enough to make it an important part of my model.
I think it won’t work (and isn’t working today) for the same reasons John outlines here with regards to HCH/”the infinite bureaucracy”. (tl;dr: this requires competent problem factorization, but problem factorization is nontrivial and can’t be relegated to an afterthought.)
Thinking about this, I think a generalized crux with John Wentworth et al is probably on how differently we see bureaucracies, and he sees them as terrible, whereas I see them as both quite flawed and has real problems, but are also wonderful tools to have that keeps the modern civilization’s growth engine stable, and the thing that keeps the light on, so I see bureaucracies as way more important for civilization’s success than John Wentworth believes.
One reason for this is a lot of the success cases of bureaucracies look like no news can be made, so success isn’t obvious, whereas bureaucratic failure is obvious.
I think the difference between real bureaucracies and HCH is that in real functioning bureaucracies should be elements capable to say “screw this arbitrary problem factorization, I’m doing what’s useful” and bosses of bureaucracy should be able to say “we all understand that otherwise system wouldn’t be able to work”.