I have seen a poll asking “when will indefinite lifespans be possible?”, and Eric Drexler answered “1967″, because that was when cryonic suspension first became available.
Similarly, I think we’ve had AGI at least since 2022, because even then, ChatGPT was an intelligence, and it was general, and it was artificial.
(To deny that the AIs we have now have general intelligence, I think one would have to deny that most humans have general intelligence, too.)
So that’s my main reason for very short timelines. We already crossed the crucial AGI threshold through the stupid serendipity of scaling up autocomplete, and now it’s just a matter of refining the method, and attaching a few extra specialized modules.
I agree with this view. Deep neural nets trained with SGD can learn anything. (“The models just want to learn.”) Human brains are also not really different from brains of other animals. I think the main struggles are 1. scaling up compute, which follows a fairly predictable pattern, and 2. figuring out what we actually want them to learn, which is what I think we’re most confused about.
I have seen a poll asking “when will indefinite lifespans be possible?”, and Eric Drexler answered “1967″, because that was when cryonic suspension first became available.
Similarly, I think we’ve had AGI at least since 2022, because even then, ChatGPT was an intelligence, and it was general, and it was artificial.
(To deny that the AIs we have now have general intelligence, I think one would have to deny that most humans have general intelligence, too.)
So that’s my main reason for very short timelines. We already crossed the crucial AGI threshold through the stupid serendipity of scaling up autocomplete, and now it’s just a matter of refining the method, and attaching a few extra specialized modules.
I agree with this view. Deep neural nets trained with SGD can learn anything. (“The models just want to learn.”) Human brains are also not really different from brains of other animals. I think the main struggles are 1. scaling up compute, which follows a fairly predictable pattern, and 2. figuring out what we actually want them to learn, which is what I think we’re most confused about.