The fact that my first two probabilites were as high as they were has more to do with the minimal time spent and tired mental state I was in (eg I had trouble even keeping the relevant evidence in my short term memory) and fully expected later estimates based on further processing the same information to be much more extreme.
I did significantly revise my probability due to low priors on that sort of 3 person crime once I decided Guede was guilty, but I didn’t trust myself enough at the time to put a prior on it that was that low nor really keep track of evidence.
Still though, I probably could have guessed which side the answer would fall on and should have put something somewhat lower.
I had a quick look for some statistics to verify my priors that both female on female murder and multiple offender murder are unusual. These data seem relevant: gender; multiple offenders. These appear to back up my intuition that finding a very likely male suspect (Guede) should have greatly reduced the prosecution’s odds for the guilt of a female suspect (Knox) in a multiple offender attack. A plausible case for a male offender committing the crime alone should greatly lower the probability of guilt of a female suspect acting either alone or as an accomplice.
Agreed. The only reason that this might not drive down the probability of Knoxs guilt is that there’s some chance that the system is behaving somewhat rationally, and the fact that they were convicted is evidence that there’s information that you don’t have.
Of course, once you hear all the prosecutors arguments, that goes away.
That brings up an interesting question though. If the base rate is low enough and base rate neglect is common enough, maybe you really can confidently claim that Knox is innocent even though she was convicted given only the fact that Guede is guilty and plausibly could have done it himself.
If the base rate is low enough and base rate neglect is common enough, maybe you really can confidently claim that Knox is innocent even though she was convicted given only the fact that Guede is guilty and plausibly could have done it himself.
I’d love to see an article doing the research to make this claim. At the very least, I’d be entertained.
Sure this type of murder is rare, otherwise it wouldn’t have made the news. That’s not evidence the other two aren’t guilty. Not when we have her hand on the knife and his foot in her blood.
The fact that my first two probabilites were as high as they were has more to do with the minimal time spent and tired mental state I was in (eg I had trouble even keeping the relevant evidence in my short term memory) and fully expected later estimates based on further processing the same information to be much more extreme.
I did significantly revise my probability due to low priors on that sort of 3 person crime once I decided Guede was guilty, but I didn’t trust myself enough at the time to put a prior on it that was that low nor really keep track of evidence.
Still though, I probably could have guessed which side the answer would fall on and should have put something somewhat lower.
I had a quick look for some statistics to verify my priors that both female on female murder and multiple offender murder are unusual. These data seem relevant: gender; multiple offenders. These appear to back up my intuition that finding a very likely male suspect (Guede) should have greatly reduced the prosecution’s odds for the guilt of a female suspect (Knox) in a multiple offender attack. A plausible case for a male offender committing the crime alone should greatly lower the probability of guilt of a female suspect acting either alone or as an accomplice.
Agreed. The only reason that this might not drive down the probability of Knoxs guilt is that there’s some chance that the system is behaving somewhat rationally, and the fact that they were convicted is evidence that there’s information that you don’t have.
Of course, once you hear all the prosecutors arguments, that goes away.
That brings up an interesting question though. If the base rate is low enough and base rate neglect is common enough, maybe you really can confidently claim that Knox is innocent even though she was convicted given only the fact that Guede is guilty and plausibly could have done it himself.
I’d love to see an article doing the research to make this claim. At the very least, I’d be entertained.
Sure this type of murder is rare, otherwise it wouldn’t have made the news. That’s not evidence the other two aren’t guilty. Not when we have her hand on the knife and his foot in her blood.