If the base rate is low enough and base rate neglect is common enough, maybe you really can confidently claim that Knox is innocent even though she was convicted given only the fact that Guede is guilty and plausibly could have done it himself.
I’d love to see an article doing the research to make this claim. At the very least, I’d be entertained.
I’d love to see an article doing the research to make this claim. At the very least, I’d be entertained.