I was curious, so I checked: if the 3 questions were independent (clearly they’re not), your estimate for none of the 3 guilty should be .192
I assume from your similar .20 probabilities that you see Knox and Sollecito’s guilt as highly correlated. This would have the effect of raising your p(none) higher than .192.
But on the other hand, if Guede is guilty, then that should decrease the chance that the others are.
So, it seems you at least thought about what it means to give p(none)
I say just give all 2^3 probabilities (one of which is redundant) :)
Update: After reading the other comments here, I’m revising to
Knox guilty: 0.20
Sollecito guilty: 0.20
Guede guilty: 0.70
None of the three: 0.20
I was curious, so I checked: if the 3 questions were independent (clearly they’re not), your estimate for none of the 3 guilty should be .192
I assume from your similar .20 probabilities that you see Knox and Sollecito’s guilt as highly correlated. This would have the effect of raising your p(none) higher than .192.
But on the other hand, if Guede is guilty, then that should decrease the chance that the others are.
So, it seems you at least thought about what it means to give p(none)
I say just give all 2^3 probabilities (one of which is redundant) :)