Surely “median date” just means the date at which it’s equally likely to occur before as after. That is, if the singularity has a 30% chance of ever happening, it’s the date before which it’s 15% likely to happen.
That assumes you interpret not happening as being a separate third category, but for these purposes it seems more reasonable to consider it as always happening after (i.e. happening at time infinity), since we want lower probability of it happening soon to cause the median date to increase.
Median date of singularity: if I think there’s a >50% chance of (total) human extinction before this event, I can’t provide an answer.
(If, for whatever reason, i have <50% chance of Singularity, I can’t answer).
Surely “median date” just means the date at which it’s equally likely to occur before as after. That is, if the singularity has a 30% chance of ever happening, it’s the date before which it’s 15% likely to happen.
That assumes you interpret not happening as being a separate third category, but for these purposes it seems more reasonable to consider it as always happening after (i.e. happening at time infinity), since we want lower probability of it happening soon to cause the median date to increase.
Yes, that was my thinking.