I agree with the view that COVIS-19 is going to be worse than many want to admit—though very likely not as bad as some are anticipating. Regardless, though, having a plan does make good sense.
I think there are two big meta-level type questions in terms of this post and the underlying audience.
1) Acting now, in advance, would seem to offer something of a first move advantage when thinking in terms of individual interests. That would seem to be a bit contrary to the general view of the EA sub-group here.
2) If the suggested advice is really one of those private vices not leading to public virtue outcomes, perhaps there is a better way of approaching preparations for a worse case scenario for COVID-19.
One aspect of this might to at least acknowledge that we’re not all facing the same risks. Urban populations who rely on public transit, frequent crowded environment where close contact and breathing the air someone else just exhaled are at one end of the spectrum. Those living in rural areas, drive their own car, shop where their might be 5 people in the store at the same time and are off all the major routes and almost never see outsiders at the other.
> Acting now, in advance, would seem to offer something of a first move advantage when thinking in terms of individual interests. That would seem to be a bit contrary to the general view of the EA sub-group here.
I agree with the view that COVIS-19 is going to be worse than many want to admit—though very likely not as bad as some are anticipating. Regardless, though, having a plan does make good sense.
I think there are two big meta-level type questions in terms of this post and the underlying audience.
1) Acting now, in advance, would seem to offer something of a first move advantage when thinking in terms of individual interests. That would seem to be a bit contrary to the general view of the EA sub-group here.
2) If the suggested advice is really one of those private vices not leading to public virtue outcomes, perhaps there is a better way of approaching preparations for a worse case scenario for COVID-19.
One aspect of this might to at least acknowledge that we’re not all facing the same risks. Urban populations who rely on public transit, frequent crowded environment where close contact and breathing the air someone else just exhaled are at one end of the spectrum. Those living in rural areas, drive their own car, shop where their might be 5 people in the store at the same time and are off all the major routes and almost never see outsiders at the other.
> Acting now, in advance, would seem to offer something of a first move advantage when thinking in terms of individual interests. That would seem to be a bit contrary to the general view of the EA sub-group here.
I wrote a response to this here https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jc4XihXLM5uqKcqmr/hoarding-and-shortages -- it depends a lot on whether you think there’s time and capacity for producers to react to increased demand.