I appreciate that, betting on the market, but it requires that I study well to actualize my beliefs about the market. And if I bet on my own beliefs, my capabilities, expectations, and personal goals, to study myself?
Sorry, haha well i mean, on the racetrack of my life, I see horses of different breeds, trainers, and odds I could bet on: professional careers, relationships, personal projects, skills to develop. How can I bet better?
Some bets are very expensive, like the bet I made with myself that I could be a genius at probabilistic reasoning here at LessWrong, haha. And others just seem weird, like when I bet that eating a kilo of cheese would relax me and help me think better… (Well, it didn’t. I could talk about other, weirder bets, but that one seems less likely to be canceled.) The point is, I left two expectations to analyze: one very difficult and one very easy.
Yeah, so you make probabilistic forecasts about events in the future, then you grade yourself later, and update based off what the results ended up being and how wrong or right you were.
If its expensive to test a forecast, prioritize those less until you have a better understanding of which experiments are more likely to be more valuable, and you have better prediction capabilities.
You need to have beliefs to test how well-calibrated your beliefs are. Studying is one way to form new beliefs. You could avoid that effort by just testing your existing beliefs.
You can try to make a prediction about what future you will think. For example, “in 2 years, I will think that working on project X was a good idea”. If other people don’t want to bet on those terms (since you can technically say whatever you want at the end), you can just write down predictions and then see whether your predictions in the past were correct.
You might object that now you don’t have skin in the game, but I think you do, if you care about trying to win the game of writing down good predictions.
I appreciate that, betting on the market, but it requires that I study well to actualize my beliefs about the market. And if I bet on my own beliefs, my capabilities, expectations, and personal goals, to study myself?
I don’t understand how this relates to what I said, can you say more?
Sorry, haha well i mean, on the racetrack of my life, I see horses of different breeds, trainers, and odds I could bet on: professional careers, relationships, personal projects, skills to develop. How can I bet better?
Some bets are very expensive, like the bet I made with myself that I could be a genius at probabilistic reasoning here at LessWrong, haha. And others just seem weird, like when I bet that eating a kilo of cheese would relax me and help me think better… (Well, it didn’t. I could talk about other, weirder bets, but that one seems less likely to be canceled.) The point is, I left two expectations to analyze: one very difficult and one very easy.
Yeah, so you make probabilistic forecasts about events in the future, then you grade yourself later, and update based off what the results ended up being and how wrong or right you were.
If its expensive to test a forecast, prioritize those less until you have a better understanding of which experiments are more likely to be more valuable, and you have better prediction capabilities.
Could it be that I can do this, but if I focus on making predictions about my behavior?
Many use it for this purpose.
how i find how they do?
You need to have beliefs to test how well-calibrated your beliefs are. Studying is one way to form new beliefs. You could avoid that effort by just testing your existing beliefs.
Sometimes it’s hard to define bets, especially if they’re predictions about myself, right? Are you trying to make this type of bet?
You can try to make a prediction about what future you will think. For example, “in 2 years, I will think that working on project X was a good idea”. If other people don’t want to bet on those terms (since you can technically say whatever you want at the end), you can just write down predictions and then see whether your predictions in the past were correct.
You might object that now you don’t have skin in the game, but I think you do, if you care about trying to win the game of writing down good predictions.