Sorry, haha well i mean, on the racetrack of my life, I see horses of different breeds, trainers, and odds I could bet on: professional careers, relationships, personal projects, skills to develop. How can I bet better?
Some bets are very expensive, like the bet I made with myself that I could be a genius at probabilistic reasoning here at LessWrong, haha. And others just seem weird, like when I bet that eating a kilo of cheese would relax me and help me think better… (Well, it didn’t. I could talk about other, weirder bets, but that one seems less likely to be canceled.) The point is, I left two expectations to analyze: one very difficult and one very easy.
Yeah, so you make probabilistic forecasts about events in the future, then you grade yourself later, and update based off what the results ended up being and how wrong or right you were.
If its expensive to test a forecast, prioritize those less until you have a better understanding of which experiments are more likely to be more valuable, and you have better prediction capabilities.
Sorry, haha well i mean, on the racetrack of my life, I see horses of different breeds, trainers, and odds I could bet on: professional careers, relationships, personal projects, skills to develop. How can I bet better?
Some bets are very expensive, like the bet I made with myself that I could be a genius at probabilistic reasoning here at LessWrong, haha. And others just seem weird, like when I bet that eating a kilo of cheese would relax me and help me think better… (Well, it didn’t. I could talk about other, weirder bets, but that one seems less likely to be canceled.) The point is, I left two expectations to analyze: one very difficult and one very easy.
Yeah, so you make probabilistic forecasts about events in the future, then you grade yourself later, and update based off what the results ended up being and how wrong or right you were.
If its expensive to test a forecast, prioritize those less until you have a better understanding of which experiments are more likely to be more valuable, and you have better prediction capabilities.
Could it be that I can do this, but if I focus on making predictions about my behavior?
Many use it for this purpose.
how i find how they do?