If China thinks that AI is very important and that US is winning the AI race, it will have very strong incentive to start the war with Taiwan which has a chance to escalate to WW3. Thus selling chips to China lowers chances of nuclear war.
This reduces x-risk, but one may argue that China is bad in AI safety and thus total risk is increasing. However, I think that equilibrium strategy when several AGIs are created simultaneously lowers chances that a single misaligned AI takes over the world.
If the arguments in this article are correct, then nuclear war, unless it leads to the militarization of AGI, is unlikely to trigger an extinction risk.
Regardless of whether China acquires the H200, and perhaps regardless of their understanding of AI’s importance, they will attempt to retake Taiwan: public sentiment, ideology, and the fact that reclaiming Taiwan would permanently establish China’s semiconductor advantage over the US. China’s leadership has long recognized the critical importance of securing advanced chip supplies.
If China thinks that AI is very important and that US is winning the AI race, it will have very strong incentive to start the war with Taiwan which has a chance to escalate to WW3. Thus selling chips to China lowers chances of nuclear war.
This reduces x-risk, but one may argue that China is bad in AI safety and thus total risk is increasing. However, I think that equilibrium strategy when several AGIs are created simultaneously lowers chances that a single misaligned AI takes over the world.
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sT6NxFxso6Z9xjS7o/nuclear-war-is-unlikely-to-cause-human-extinction
If the arguments in this article are correct, then nuclear war, unless it leads to the militarization of AGI, is unlikely to trigger an extinction risk.
Regardless of whether China acquires the H200, and perhaps regardless of their understanding of AI’s importance, they will attempt to retake Taiwan: public sentiment, ideology, and the fact that reclaiming Taiwan would permanently establish China’s semiconductor advantage over the US. China’s leadership has long recognized the critical importance of securing advanced chip supplies.