A lot of your ideas suffer from the problem of trust and value of trade. All of these are hard to do the math to calculate the conditional expected value. A lot depends on the specific counter-party and their distribution of beliefs about timelines and impact, as well.
Can you describe what specific timeline you want to bet on and what the even-money-equivalent longer-timeline you’re seeking to bet against is? What timeline should make someone indifferent to your wager (and therefore, a longer timeline or weighted mean timeline estimate would make it attractive to bet against you)?
Yeah. I’m hopeful that versions of them can be found which are appealing to both me and my bet-partners, even if we have to judge using our intuitions rather than math.
I’m working on a big post (or sequence) outlining my views on timelines, but quantitatively they look like this black line here:
My understanding is that most people have timelines that are more like the blue/bottom line on this graph.