No, what matters is the likelihood ratio between “person trying to kill me” and the most likely alternative hypothesis—like e.g. an actor playing a villain.
An actor playing a villain is a sub-case of someone not trying to kill you.
Bottom line: I find it very, very difficult to believe that someone saying they’re trying to kill you isn’t strong evidence that they’re trying to kill you, even if the prior on that is quite low.
If I’m an actor playing a villain, then the person I’m talking with is also an actor playing a role, and it’s the expected thing to act as convincingly as possible that you actually are trying to kill them. This seems obviously dangerous to me.
No, what matters is the likelihood ratio between “person trying to kill me” and the most likely alternative hypothesis—like e.g. an actor playing a villain.
An actor playing a villain is a sub-case of someone not trying to kill you.
Bottom line: I find it very, very difficult to believe that someone saying they’re trying to kill you isn’t strong evidence that they’re trying to kill you, even if the prior on that is quite low.
If I’m an actor playing a villain, then the person I’m talking with is also an actor playing a role, and it’s the expected thing to act as convincingly as possible that you actually are trying to kill them. This seems obviously dangerous to me.
I’m assuming dsj’s hypothetical scenario is not one where GPT-6 was prompted to simulate an actor playing a villain.