The US and China signing an AI ban treaty and then enforcing it by force if necessary, actually strikes me as realistic, in a realpolitik sense. That is, if they could reach the point of earnestly coming to such an agreement. There would be a whole world of other countries to keep in line via carrot and stick—Russia, Israel, India—but they might be able to do it—for a while.
I do think the clock would eventually run out, however—by which I mean, that the resources needed to approach the threshold of superintelligence would diminish year by year, thanks to algorithmic advances, and probably cloud computing on the dark web.
There would be a whole world of other countries to keep in line via carrot and stick—Russia, Israel, India—but they might be able to do it—for a while.
Those aren’t really the countries I’m thinking about, but yes I would imagine US, China, and all other countries would punish any country going against the treaty.
I do think the clock would eventually run out, however—by which I mean, that the resources needed to approach the threshold of superintelligence would diminish year by year, thanks to algorithmic advances, and probably cloud computing on the dark web.
I worry about that, but:
In that world we may be screwed regardless if misaligned AIs are so compute efficient.
I’m not sure I believe a misaligned AI from one country could succeed in a takeover. I’d expect that they would need to be so entangled in our critical infrastructure and maintain the supply chain process for its further development. So, seems like it could cause damage, but imo would not succeed in a takeover (or maybe even attempt one for a long time).
You may get higher odds of a US and China agreement if those other countries have enough will to push for it (so, a bit of a chicken and egg).
The US and China signing an AI ban treaty and then enforcing it by force if necessary, actually strikes me as realistic, in a realpolitik sense. That is, if they could reach the point of earnestly coming to such an agreement. There would be a whole world of other countries to keep in line via carrot and stick—Russia, Israel, India—but they might be able to do it—for a while.
I do think the clock would eventually run out, however—by which I mean, that the resources needed to approach the threshold of superintelligence would diminish year by year, thanks to algorithmic advances, and probably cloud computing on the dark web.
Those aren’t really the countries I’m thinking about, but yes I would imagine US, China, and all other countries would punish any country going against the treaty.
I worry about that, but:
In that world we may be screwed regardless if misaligned AIs are so compute efficient.
I’m not sure I believe a misaligned AI from one country could succeed in a takeover. I’d expect that they would need to be so entangled in our critical infrastructure and maintain the supply chain process for its further development. So, seems like it could cause damage, but imo would not succeed in a takeover (or maybe even attempt one for a long time).
You may get higher odds of a US and China agreement if those other countries have enough will to push for it (so, a bit of a chicken and egg).