can you operationalize this more so we can bet on it?
Sure!
In the years before shortforms were on the front page, Eli published more LessWrong posts (on average) than the years when shortforms were on the front page.
This is an unfair operationalization, perhaps, but it does hew directly to the evidence that makes me believe the claim!
@Eli Tyre I’m not sure when you’re counting “the quick takes started changing things” but it seems like yourposting has basically been pretty constantly except for a brief more intense period in 2019/2020.
(you don’t seem to have any writing here before 2017 although I’m a bit surprised and not sure if you had a second account)
Sure!
In the years before shortforms were on the front page, Eli published more LessWrong posts (on average) than the years when shortforms were on the front page.
This is an unfair operationalization, perhaps, but it does hew directly to the evidence that makes me believe the claim!
Well here is your posting history:
Year
Posts
Post wordcount
Comments
Comment wordcount
Shortform
Shortform Wordcount
Total wordcount
2017
0
0.0k
2
1.7k
0
0.0k
1.7k
2018
1
1.7k
35
0.4k
0
0.0k
2.1k
2019
12
2.2k
193
7.8k
25
4.1k
14.2k
2020
28
15.6k
147
11.1k
11
7.6k
34.3k
2021
5
3.4k
96
10.1k
14
2.7k
16.2k
2022
3
4.2k
114
14.5k
2
0.4k
19.2k
2023
3
14.8k
128
20.5k
0
0.0k
35.3k
2024
1
0.4k
227
27.0k
8
8.2k
35.6k
2025
0
0.0k
307
35.2k
9
5.9k
41.1k
2026
3
4.3k
234
25.9k
6
4.1k
34.3k
@Eli Tyre I’m not sure when you’re counting “the quick takes started changing things” but it seems like yourposting has basically been pretty constantly except for a brief more intense period in 2019/2020.
(you don’t seem to have any writing here before 2017 although I’m a bit surprised and not sure if you had a second account)
You guys started a new account for me when LessWrong 2.0 started.