Ben Thompson ( https://stratechery.com/ ) , an American industry analyst currently living in Taiwan has a bunch of analyses on this on his blog. In nutshell, the US has a critical infra dependency on Taiwan in high-performance chip manufacturing; specifically, TSMC has a 90% share of 7nm, and 5nm chips. This is critical infra, for which the US does not have good (or even close-enough) substitues. Based on both these economic incentives, and Biden’s own statements, the US is extremely likely to reply to Chineese aggression against Taiwan with military force.
Or are you saying that the probability is so high that it isn’t a relevant variable in CCP planning; they’ll basically just assume a kinetic US response and then plan around that? If so, then yeah that’s a good counterargument.
Ben Thompson ( https://stratechery.com/ ) , an American industry analyst currently living in Taiwan has a bunch of analyses on this on his blog. In nutshell, the US has a critical infra dependency on Taiwan in high-performance chip manufacturing; specifically, TSMC has a 90% share of 7nm, and 5nm chips. This is critical infra, for which the US does not have good (or even close-enough) substitues. Based on both these economic incentives, and Biden’s own statements, the US is extremely likely to reply to Chineese aggression against Taiwan with military force.
See my reply to ChristianKI above.
Or are you saying that the probability is so high that it isn’t a relevant variable in CCP planning; they’ll basically just assume a kinetic US response and then plan around that? If so, then yeah that’s a good counterargument.
Metaculus disagrees, fwiw: