See here AI-updated version of the map which includes probabilities and Global vs Local solution distinctions. If you press on any text it will provide more detailed explanation. But this AI-version may have subtle errors. Probabilities are AI-generated and just illustrative. https://avturchin.github.io/OpenSideloading/fermi_v11_en_interactive.html
This one is generated by Opus 4.5 based on my hand-made map. I asked it to give plausible probabilities. At first glance they are rather plausible as a prior. My main view is that both rare earth theory and late great filter are valid and as result the nearest grabby aliens are around 1 billion light years from us.
Could you do it as a text post with short explanations of each?
See here AI-updated version of the map which includes probabilities and Global vs Local solution distinctions. If you press on any text it will provide more detailed explanation. But this AI-version may have subtle errors. Probabilities are AI-generated and just illustrative.
https://avturchin.github.io/OpenSideloading/fermi_v11_en_interactive.html
That one is interesting! Where do you take probabilities from?
This one is generated by Opus 4.5 based on my hand-made map. I asked it to give plausible probabilities. At first glance they are rather plausible as a prior. My main view is that both rare earth theory and late great filter are valid and as result the nearest grabby aliens are around 1 billion light years from us.
I can but it will look like dark forest of text—from previous experience. Which point are not clear?
I also have AI-enhanced version of the map with generated probabilities and I can ask it to add explanations.
I second this and would at least like a version where all the blue words, presumably links, take you to the explanation if one exists.
Edit: I did not click the link, of course you have to click the link, this is my fault
Click of the word pdf in above the map: “Fermi paradox solutions map, pdf “
and it should show pdf with links.