See here AI-updated version of the map which includes probabilities and Global vs Local solution distinctions. If you press on any text it will provide more detailed explanation. But this AI-version may have subtle errors. Probabilities are AI-generated and just illustrative. https://avturchin.github.io/OpenSideloading/fermi_v11_en_interactive.html
This one is generated by Opus 4.5 based on my hand-made map. I asked it to give plausible probabilities. At first glance they are rather plausible as a prior. My main view is that both rare earth theory and late great filter are valid and as result the nearest grabby aliens are around 1 billion light years from us.
See here AI-updated version of the map which includes probabilities and Global vs Local solution distinctions. If you press on any text it will provide more detailed explanation. But this AI-version may have subtle errors. Probabilities are AI-generated and just illustrative.
https://avturchin.github.io/OpenSideloading/fermi_v11_en_interactive.html
That one is interesting! Where do you take probabilities from?
This one is generated by Opus 4.5 based on my hand-made map. I asked it to give plausible probabilities. At first glance they are rather plausible as a prior. My main view is that both rare earth theory and late great filter are valid and as result the nearest grabby aliens are around 1 billion light years from us.