Something that is probably obvious to most people, but I have not seen discussed on LessWrong yet: I expect that sometime during the AGI revolution, most crimes committed between now and 2000 are going to become solved, including many that have not been detected as of 2026. I wonder often what society is going to find out WRT what % of the population has committed serious crimes, and what we’re going to do in response.
A lot of crimes are committed in physical space by people who are hard to track, and who commit so many crimes that they might not even remember all of them. I’m thinking of things like shoplifting, muggings, etc. I’m not convinced the physical evidence to solve a lot of these still exists.
Although if you’re only talking about murder it gets easier, but I still think the evidence for older murders is mostly in people’s heads.
most crimes committed between now and 2000 are going to become solved
I don’t believe this for sexual assault, domestic violence, or many forms of child abuse, elder abuse, and the like; because these crimes are quite often committed in private.
Sure, if you mean bank robberies, jewel heists, and other movie-plot crimes. But the clearance rate for those is already quite high.
As long as the perpetrators are still alive, there is still the evidence in the form of memories inside those peoples’ heads, which seems like it would clear quite a few remaining crimes, independent of all of the side channel mechanisms Omega could use to gather information about the likely commission of such crimes. Even for people who are no longer still alive, we will often have their DNA, and can use that to narrow down a lot of the variance in how we expect them to act in various likely circumstances.
Something that is probably obvious to most people, but I have not seen discussed on LessWrong yet: I expect that sometime during the AGI revolution, most crimes committed between now and 2000 are going to become solved, including many that have not been detected as of 2026. I wonder often what society is going to find out WRT what % of the population has committed serious crimes, and what we’re going to do in response.
A lot of crimes are committed in physical space by people who are hard to track, and who commit so many crimes that they might not even remember all of them. I’m thinking of things like shoplifting, muggings, etc. I’m not convinced the physical evidence to solve a lot of these still exists.
Although if you’re only talking about murder it gets easier, but I still think the evidence for older murders is mostly in people’s heads.
I don’t believe this for sexual assault, domestic violence, or many forms of child abuse, elder abuse, and the like; because these crimes are quite often committed in private.
Sure, if you mean bank robberies, jewel heists, and other movie-plot crimes. But the clearance rate for those is already quite high.
As long as the perpetrators are still alive, there is still the evidence in the form of memories inside those peoples’ heads, which seems like it would clear quite a few remaining crimes, independent of all of the side channel mechanisms Omega could use to gather information about the likely commission of such crimes. Even for people who are no longer still alive, we will often have their DNA, and can use that to narrow down a lot of the variance in how we expect them to act in various likely circumstances.