I think most observers are underestimating how popular Nick Fuentes will be in about a year among conservatives. Would love to operationalize this belief and create some manifold markets about it. Some ideas:
Will Nick Fuentes have over 1,000,000 Twitter followers by 2025*?
Will Nick Fuentes have a public debate with [any of Ben Shapiro/Charlie Kirk/etc.] by 2026?
Will Nick Fuentes have another public meeting with a national level politician (I.e. congressman or above) by 2026?
Will any national level politicians endorse Nick Fuentes’ content or claim they are a fan of his by 2026?
I think most observers are underestimating how popular Nick Fuentes will be in about a year among conservatives. Would love to operationalize this belief and create some manifold markets about it. Some ideas:
Will Nick Fuentes have over 1,000,000 Twitter followers by 2025*?
Will Nick Fuentes have a public debate with [any of Ben Shapiro/Charlie Kirk/etc.] by 2026?
Will Nick Fuentes have another public meeting with a national level politician (I.e. congressman or above) by 2026?
Will any national level politicians endorse Nick Fuentes’ content or claim they are a fan of his by 2026?
*Edit Oct/2025: I think this was a typo and submit this market made around the same time as evidence: https://manifold.markets/MilfordHammerschmidt/will-nick-fuentes-have-over-1000000
Those seem like pretty low bars for “popular and mainstream”.