Very well written post, although I disagree with the main conclusions. But first of all, I agree that both in the original and in the updated version of the essay Kelly seems to imply that if an average artist goes for his strategy, they can expect (>= 50%) to be able to live off their work:
I don’t know the actual true number, but I think a dedicated artist could cultivate 1,000 True Fans, and by their direct support using new technology, make an honest living.
Having said that, I do not think your conclusions about the EMH hold here, or that they are somewhat inconsistent with your other statements. First of all you agree with the author regarding the superiority of the “1000 true fans” strategy over the broad appeal strategy.
However, then you assert that according to the EMH it is impossible that one job is much easier than the other. But that would also mean that the “1000 true fans” path cannot be superiorto the normal path, so both of your assertions are (somewhat) in conflict with each other.
But the EMH brings it all together in a much bigger way. It says:
Is this author suggesting that it’s much easier to do one job than another and make the same money?
THEN THIS AUTHOR IS WRONG!!!!
Personally, I both believe that the 1000 true fans strategy is indeed more superior for many/most creators and in that sense a 20 dollar bill that is lying on the ground for a long time. If one believes in the EMH here, one would also need to explain why it took >10 years for OnlyFans and Substack to emerge.
Thanks for your constructive feedback. I’m not an EMH fundamentalist. It doesn’t surprise me when people find an edge, and it doesn’t surprise me when possible advancements aren’t developed the instant they are technologically feasible. I just think that if you run the numbers, KK’s post is written to suggest that it’s far easier to make a living as a content creator than as a physician’s assistant, and I think that’s unlikely.
As for the stardom vs “true fans” approach, I don’t actually think my post was saying that one’s better than the other. In fact, I was pointing out that getting 1,000 true fans likely requires getting many times that number of regular fans. I might be wrong here. Getting 1,000 true fans is definitely saner and more likely than becoming a star. But being a star comes with greater rewards. It’s a risk/reward trade off. I don’t know which has the higher expected value.
I’m not super clear on what steps you would take to pursue the “true fans” approach that you would not also take in pursuit of stardom. KK’s post seems mainly of value in reminding content creators that there are tiers of success that can provide you with a good living short of stardom.
I’m not super clear on what steps you would take to pursue the “true fans” approach that you would not also take in pursuit of stardom.
The traditional way to get stardom is not through having direct relationships with your fans but through signing up with big record labels and publishing houses. The strategy that Kevin Kelly advocates is different to the way people archieved stardom before.
I always kind of assumed that content creators would typically need some kind of fan base before they’d be able to get a record or book deal. Maybe I’m wrong about that, though.
It used to be that publishing houses and record labels saw their role as discovering and building up talent.
Now, we have a world where the power of institutions like record labels to make stars is a lot less then it used to and there are more people who have success independently of institutions. In that world success independent of institutions is a signal for the institutions that a person is more likely to have promise.
Getting a book deal reduces the amount of profit you can get per true fan. The people I know personally who make a good living as content creators on the internet likely could get a book deal, but it they make more profits in the blueprint that Kelly lays out then they would if the would go for the book deal.
Additionally, people with expertise but without an established audience can still get book deals if they have a book proposal that the people at the publishing houses find promising.
Very well written post, although I disagree with the main conclusions. But first of all, I agree that both in the original and in the updated version of the essay Kelly seems to imply that if an average artist goes for his strategy, they can expect (>= 50%) to be able to live off their work:
Having said that, I do not think your conclusions about the EMH hold here, or that they are somewhat inconsistent with your other statements. First of all you agree with the author regarding the superiority of the “1000 true fans” strategy over the broad appeal strategy.
However, then you assert that according to the EMH it is impossible that one job is much easier than the other. But that would also mean that the “1000 true fans” path cannot be superior to the normal path, so both of your assertions are (somewhat) in conflict with each other.
Personally, I both believe that the 1000 true fans strategy is indeed more superior for many/most creators and in that sense a 20 dollar bill that is lying on the ground for a long time. If one believes in the EMH here, one would also need to explain why it took >10 years for OnlyFans and Substack to emerge.
Thanks for your constructive feedback. I’m not an EMH fundamentalist. It doesn’t surprise me when people find an edge, and it doesn’t surprise me when possible advancements aren’t developed the instant they are technologically feasible. I just think that if you run the numbers, KK’s post is written to suggest that it’s far easier to make a living as a content creator than as a physician’s assistant, and I think that’s unlikely.
As for the stardom vs “true fans” approach, I don’t actually think my post was saying that one’s better than the other. In fact, I was pointing out that getting 1,000 true fans likely requires getting many times that number of regular fans. I might be wrong here. Getting 1,000 true fans is definitely saner and more likely than becoming a star. But being a star comes with greater rewards. It’s a risk/reward trade off. I don’t know which has the higher expected value.
I’m not super clear on what steps you would take to pursue the “true fans” approach that you would not also take in pursuit of stardom. KK’s post seems mainly of value in reminding content creators that there are tiers of success that can provide you with a good living short of stardom.
The traditional way to get stardom is not through having direct relationships with your fans but through signing up with big record labels and publishing houses. The strategy that Kevin Kelly advocates is different to the way people archieved stardom before.
I always kind of assumed that content creators would typically need some kind of fan base before they’d be able to get a record or book deal. Maybe I’m wrong about that, though.
It used to be that publishing houses and record labels saw their role as discovering and building up talent.
Now, we have a world where the power of institutions like record labels to make stars is a lot less then it used to and there are more people who have success independently of institutions. In that world success independent of institutions is a signal for the institutions that a person is more likely to have promise.
Getting a book deal reduces the amount of profit you can get per true fan. The people I know personally who make a good living as content creators on the internet likely could get a book deal, but it they make more profits in the blueprint that Kelly lays out then they would if the would go for the book deal.
Additionally, people with expertise but without an established audience can still get book deals if they have a book proposal that the people at the publishing houses find promising.