I will have to steal the term “proof by lack of imagination”!
I have a slightly lower confidence in “no ally of Germany”. Lets, hypothetically, say it was Poland. The Polish government opposed (very publicly) the making of Nord steam in the first place. They have (very publicly) continued to criticize it and use language of the sort that Germany is doing something immoral by buying the gas. So, if they hypothetically had done it, and were caught they could simply say “Yes. We have been telling you to do this publicly for a decade. We grew tired of waiting.” (Then lean hard into a hopefully muted enough reaction from USA/UK to move on—plus, its not like it would get them kicked out of the EU, I think that requires a unanimous vote, and remaining in the EU I am not sure what Germany could really do to punish them.) Obviously sabotage and diplomatic pressure are different, but I think most people put them closer than you might expect. (Legitimate diplomatic pressure could, for example, involve withdrawing money that was of greater value than the damage of the sabotage).
Given Poland’s populist politics I expect that there’s also a good chance that the Polish population would applaud their government for asserting itself as a player.
I will have to steal the term “proof by lack of imagination”!
I have a slightly lower confidence in “no ally of Germany”. Lets, hypothetically, say it was Poland. The Polish government opposed (very publicly) the making of Nord steam in the first place. They have (very publicly) continued to criticize it and use language of the sort that Germany is doing something immoral by buying the gas. So, if they hypothetically had done it, and were caught they could simply say “Yes. We have been telling you to do this publicly for a decade. We grew tired of waiting.” (Then lean hard into a hopefully muted enough reaction from USA/UK to move on—plus, its not like it would get them kicked out of the EU, I think that requires a unanimous vote, and remaining in the EU I am not sure what Germany could really do to punish them.) Obviously sabotage and diplomatic pressure are different, but I think most people put them closer than you might expect. (Legitimate diplomatic pressure could, for example, involve withdrawing money that was of greater value than the damage of the sabotage).
Given Poland’s populist politics I expect that there’s also a good chance that the Polish population would applaud their government for asserting itself as a player.