If Russia were to nuke Ukraine with a tactical nuke, they will put the US into a position of being forced to respond.
If we go all the way up the escalation ladder to a full nuclear exchange, it’s essentially impossible for Russia to win.
So they probably will need to either not escalate, or plan to deescalate at an intermediate point, e.g. if there’s an exchange of tac nukes or a tac nuke is exchanged for a nasty conventional strike, Russia may intend to stop the escalation at that point.
Russia has much more reason to bark about nukes than to bite. The bite might happen but I don’t see a strong reason for it.
If it reaches that point, the goal for Russia would not be to win but to ensure another side loses too, and this outcome might be preferable (to them) to a humiliating conventional defeat that might permanently end Russian sovereignty. In the end, the West has far more to lose than Russia and the stakes aren’t that high for us and they know it.
No. I think everything else is in crappy shape cause the Nuclear arsenal was always a priority for the Russian defense industry and most of the money and resources went there. I’ve noticed that the meme “perhaps Russian nukes don’t work” is getting increasingly popular which can have pretty bad consequences if the meme spreads and emboldens escalation.
It is like being incentivized to play Russian roulette because you hear bullets were made in a country that produced some other crappy products.
The main reason for everything being in a crappy state is almost certainly (>90%) widespread corruption.
Everyone who can is creaming off a little bit, leaving very little for the actual materiél and training. So shoddy materials, poor to no training, missing equipment, components and spares.
That said, while it is very likely that the Russian nuclear arsenal is in extremely poor state, and I’d possibly go as high as 50⁄50 that their ICBMs could launch but cannot be aimed (as that takes expensive components that are easy to steal/not deliver and hide that fact), missing the target by a hundred miles or more is basically irrelevant in the “ending the world” stakes.
A ‘tactical’ device doesn’t need much in the way of aiming, and on the assumption that it does in fact contain nuclear material there’s not a huge civilian difference between it exploding ‘as designed’ or “just” fizzling.
If only the initiator went off, the weapon disintegrated during launch/firing, or the weapon/aircraft was shot down, it would still spread radioactive material over a wide area.
While that wouldn’t be the “shock and awe” of a mushroom cloud, it’s still pretty devastating to normal life.
If Russia were to nuke Ukraine with a tactical nuke, they will put the US into a position of being forced to respond.
If we go all the way up the escalation ladder to a full nuclear exchange, it’s essentially impossible for Russia to win.
So they probably will need to either not escalate, or plan to deescalate at an intermediate point, e.g. if there’s an exchange of tac nukes or a tac nuke is exchanged for a nasty conventional strike, Russia may intend to stop the escalation at that point.
Russia has much more reason to bark about nukes than to bite. The bite might happen but I don’t see a strong reason for it.
If it reaches that point, the goal for Russia would not be to win but to ensure another side loses too, and this outcome might be preferable (to them) to a humiliating conventional defeat that might permanently end Russian sovereignty. In the end, the West has far more to lose than Russia and the stakes aren’t that high for us and they know it.
At this stage, Putin must be wondering if his nuclear arsenal is in the same crappy shape as everything else.
No. I think everything else is in crappy shape cause the Nuclear arsenal was always a priority for the Russian defense industry and most of the money and resources went there. I’ve noticed that the meme “perhaps Russian nukes don’t work” is getting increasingly popular which can have pretty bad consequences if the meme spreads and emboldens escalation.
It is like being incentivized to play Russian roulette because you hear bullets were made in a country that produced some other crappy products.
The main reason for everything being in a crappy state is almost certainly (>90%) widespread corruption.
Everyone who can is creaming off a little bit, leaving very little for the actual materiél and training.
So shoddy materials, poor to no training, missing equipment, components and spares.
That said, while it is very likely that the Russian nuclear arsenal is in extremely poor state, and I’d possibly go as high as 50⁄50 that their ICBMs could launch but cannot be aimed (as that takes expensive components that are easy to steal/not deliver and hide that fact), missing the target by a hundred miles or more is basically irrelevant in the “ending the world” stakes.
A ‘tactical’ device doesn’t need much in the way of aiming, and on the assumption that it does in fact contain nuclear material there’s not a huge civilian difference between it exploding ‘as designed’ or “just” fizzling.
If only the initiator went off, the weapon disintegrated during launch/firing, or the weapon/aircraft was shot down, it would still spread radioactive material over a wide area.
While that wouldn’t be the “shock and awe” of a mushroom cloud, it’s still pretty devastating to normal life.