These quick updates on omicron are great—I’m super grateful I don’t have to wait a week between updates!
One question I had:
There is going to be a period early in 2022 when there are quite a lot of Omicron cases, such that it will be difficult to remain uninfected and it will likely be difficult to get any kind of medical treatment at a hospital. Be ready.
vs
Chance we are broadly looking at a future crisis situation with widely overwhelmed American hospitals, new large American lockdowns and things like that: 12% → 17%.
These two things seem fairly similar—I wouldn’t expect it to take much to go from [difficult to get treatment] to [widely overwhelmed]. At which point I’d expect large lockdowns although I know the US is more resistant to this. Maybe the difference is bigger than I’m picturing.
Could you expand on your model here? In terms of actions I should be taking this seems to be the most important prediction.
My model is that ‘hospitals are at capacity and under stress, and turn you away a lot’ is pretty much baked in, but ‘this turns into a crisis where we have people dying in the corridors and emergency conditions imposed’ as a compound statement is a lot less likely. Still, I agree that 17% was too low, and I should have been more like 30%.
These quick updates on omicron are great—I’m super grateful I don’t have to wait a week between updates!
One question I had:
vs
These two things seem fairly similar—I wouldn’t expect it to take much to go from [difficult to get treatment] to [widely overwhelmed]. At which point I’d expect large lockdowns although I know the US is more resistant to this. Maybe the difference is bigger than I’m picturing.
Could you expand on your model here? In terms of actions I should be taking this seems to be the most important prediction.
My model is that ‘hospitals are at capacity and under stress, and turn you away a lot’ is pretty much baked in, but ‘this turns into a crisis where we have people dying in the corridors and emergency conditions imposed’ as a compound statement is a lot less likely. Still, I agree that 17% was too low, and I should have been more like 30%.