Life on earth started 3.5 billion years ago. Log_2(3.5 billion years/1 hour) = 45 doublings. With one doubling every 7 months, that makes 26 years, or in 2051.
(Obviously this model underestimates the difficulty of getting superalignment to work. But also extrapolating the METR trend is questionable for 45 doublings is dubious in an unknown direction. So whatever.)
You’re saying that if you assigned 1 human contractor the task of solving superalignment, they would succeed after ~3.5 billion years of work? 🤔 I think you misunderstood what the y-axis on the graph is measuring.
I mean I don’t really believe the premises of the question. But I took “Even if you’re not a fan of automating alignment, if we do make it to that point we might as well give it a shot!” to imply that even in such a circumstance, you still want me to come up with some sort of answer.
Life on earth started 3.5 billion years ago. Log_2(3.5 billion years/1 hour) = 45 doublings. With one doubling every 7 months, that makes 26 years, or in 2051.
(Obviously this model underestimates the difficulty of getting superalignment to work. But also extrapolating the METR trend is questionable for 45 doublings is dubious in an unknown direction. So whatever.)
You’re saying that if you assigned 1 human contractor the task of solving superalignment, they would succeed after ~3.5 billion years of work? 🤔 I think you misunderstood what the y-axis on the graph is measuring.
I mean I don’t really believe the premises of the question. But I took “Even if you’re not a fan of automating alignment, if we do make it to that point we might as well give it a shot!” to imply that even in such a circumstance, you still want me to come up with some sort of answer.