--Ability to draw probability distributions with a mouse or pen rather than having to input numbers
—Ability to (optionally) auto-update predictions over time, e.g. “I predict 30% chance of this happening by end of year 2021, if it hasn’t happened yet, consider my prediction to be proportionally lower.” A version of this for distributions would work as well.
—Ability to compare a set of users by collecting the set of questions they all predicted and seeing who did best on that set
—Massive scale: Thousands of questions on hundreds of topics, with some sort of recommendation algorithm to help match me to questions I’m interested in. Lots of users too, to make for lively discussions.
if you predict updating your temporal distribution after 2021 conditional on it not having happened before, then you already have: the shape of the curve after 2021 shouldn’t change just based on learning that it hasn’t happened before 2021
--Ability to draw probability distributions with a mouse or pen rather than having to input numbers —Ability to (optionally) auto-update predictions over time, e.g. “I predict 30% chance of this happening by end of year 2021, if it hasn’t happened yet, consider my prediction to be proportionally lower.” A version of this for distributions would work as well. —Ability to compare a set of users by collecting the set of questions they all predicted and seeing who did best on that set —Massive scale: Thousands of questions on hundreds of topics, with some sort of recommendation algorithm to help match me to questions I’m interested in. Lots of users too, to make for lively discussions.
if you predict updating your temporal distribution after 2021 conditional on it not having happened before, then you already have: the shape of the curve after 2021 shouldn’t change just based on learning that it hasn’t happened before 2021