Hm, fair enough. Seems like a stretch, though, especially given the need to interpret his “ETA in months” as “will be officially announced in months and released in a year”.
There was also Murati in Jun 2024 predicting PhD level AI in 18 months. If they succeed in achieving parity with xAI in terms of safety procedures, they might even release a preview checkpoint in Dec 2025 for Pro users. So actual release in a year is not strictly necessary for this hypothesis, it’s just closer to what they’ve done in the past.
Hm, fair enough. Seems like a stretch, though, especially given the need to interpret his “ETA in months” as “will be officially announced in months and released in a year”.
There was also Murati in Jun 2024 predicting PhD level AI in 18 months. If they succeed in achieving parity with xAI in terms of safety procedures, they might even release a preview checkpoint in Dec 2025 for Pro users. So actual release in a year is not strictly necessary for this hypothesis, it’s just closer to what they’ve done in the past.