The “glorified wrapper” could still be a 2e27 FLOPs model, it could even be using literal o3 as one of its tools (in addition to all the other tools, with native GPT-5 long reasoning mostly reserved for premium tier). This is in line with the “agents” agenda where better reliability in taking irreversible actions unlocks new use cases, in this case whether to make use of expensive reasoning calls.
Since “GPT-4.5” will actually be released rather than skipped, it’s less plausible for “GPT-5″ to come out shortly after. If it’s announced in ~Dec 2025 (the way o3 was), it’s still “within months”, and then it can actually get released in ~Feb 2026.
Hm, fair enough. Seems like a stretch, though, especially given the need to interpret his “ETA in months” as “will be officially announced in months and released in a year”.
There was also Murati in Jun 2024 predicting PhD level AI in 18 months. If they succeed in achieving parity with xAI in terms of safety procedures, they might even release a preview checkpoint in Dec 2025 for Pro users. So actual release in a year is not strictly necessary for this hypothesis, it’s just closer to what they’ve done in the past.
The “glorified wrapper” could still be a 2e27 FLOPs model, it could even be using literal o3 as one of its tools (in addition to all the other tools, with native GPT-5 long reasoning mostly reserved for premium tier). This is in line with the “agents” agenda where better reliability in taking irreversible actions unlocks new use cases, in this case whether to make use of expensive reasoning calls.
Since “GPT-4.5” will actually be released rather than skipped, it’s less plausible for “GPT-5″ to come out shortly after. If it’s announced in ~Dec 2025 (the way o3 was), it’s still “within months”, and then it can actually get released in ~Feb 2026.
Hm, fair enough. Seems like a stretch, though, especially given the need to interpret his “ETA in months” as “will be officially announced in months and released in a year”.
There was also Murati in Jun 2024 predicting PhD level AI in 18 months. If they succeed in achieving parity with xAI in terms of safety procedures, they might even release a preview checkpoint in Dec 2025 for Pro users. So actual release in a year is not strictly necessary for this hypothesis, it’s just closer to what they’ve done in the past.