If the EMH is true, shouldn’t the market always believe it is 100% correct about everything? (RE: “Will Metaculus see nuclear detonation coming?”)
The EMH says that you can’t do better at predicting than the market. That’s a lot weaker than saying the market is 100% right.
Efficient (in EMH) usually refers to inability to predict sign/magnitude of the prediction error.
For omniscient being answer to any prediction question is either 0 or 100. For rest of us—no so much.
See hydrogen examle in An equilibrium of no free energy
If the EMH is true, shouldn’t the market always believe it is 100% correct about everything? (RE: “Will Metaculus see nuclear detonation coming?”)
The EMH says that you can’t do better at predicting than the market. That’s a lot weaker than saying the market is 100% right.
Efficient (in EMH) usually refers to inability to predict sign/magnitude of the prediction error.
For omniscient being answer to any prediction question is either 0 or 100. For rest of us—no so much.
See hydrogen examle in An equilibrium of no free energy