Bayeseans are allowed to understand that there are agents with better estimates than they have. And that being offered a bet _IS_ evidence that the other agent THINKS they have an advantage.
Randomization (aka “mixed strategy”) is well-understood as the rational move in games where opponents are predicting your choices. I have read nothing that would even hint that it’s unavailable to Bayesean agents. The relevant probability (updated per Bayes’s Rule) would be “is my counterpart trying to minimize my payout based on my choices”.
edit: I realize you may be using a different definition of “bayeseanism” than I am. I’m thinking humans striving for rational choices, which perforce includes the knowledge of incomplete computation and imperfect knowledge. Naive agents can be imagined that don’t have this complexity. Those guys are stuck, and Omega’s gonna pwn them.
I’m thinking humans striving for rational choices,
It feels like there’s better words for this like rationality, whereas bayesianism is a more specific philosophy about how best to represent and update beliefs.
Bayeseans are allowed to understand that there are agents with better estimates than they have. And that being offered a bet _IS_ evidence that the other agent THINKS they have an advantage.
Randomization (aka “mixed strategy”) is well-understood as the rational move in games where opponents are predicting your choices. I have read nothing that would even hint that it’s unavailable to Bayesean agents. The relevant probability (updated per Bayes’s Rule) would be “is my counterpart trying to minimize my payout based on my choices”.
edit: I realize you may be using a different definition of “bayeseanism” than I am. I’m thinking humans striving for rational choices, which perforce includes the knowledge of incomplete computation and imperfect knowledge. Naive agents can be imagined that don’t have this complexity. Those guys are stuck, and Omega’s gonna pwn them.
It feels like there’s better words for this like rationality, whereas bayesianism is a more specific philosophy about how best to represent and update beliefs.