Another thing I’m not sure this gives us, which we might want: P(X | do(some difficult action)).
E.g. P(AI safety movement grows | do(I write the most highly rated Narnia fanfic)).
We could separate it into
P(AI safety movement grows | I write the most highly rated Narnia fanfic)
P(I write the most highly rated Narnia fanfic | do(I attempt that))
but I’m pretty sure that’s not equivalent (e.g. maybe it’s more likely to grow in worlds where writing the fic is hard).
Not sure how useful it is to have this—maybe we more often prefer to elicit P(X | do(attempt some difficult action)).
Yep, it doesn’t give us P(x | do(event that involves randomness)). The two are indeed not equivalent.
Another thing I’m not sure this gives us, which we might want: P(X | do(some difficult action)).
E.g. P(AI safety movement grows | do(I write the most highly rated Narnia fanfic)).
We could separate it into
P(AI safety movement grows | I write the most highly rated Narnia fanfic)
P(I write the most highly rated Narnia fanfic | do(I attempt that))
but I’m pretty sure that’s not equivalent (e.g. maybe it’s more likely to grow in worlds where writing the fic is hard).
Not sure how useful it is to have this—maybe we more often prefer to elicit P(X | do(attempt some difficult action)).
Yep, it doesn’t give us P(x | do(event that involves randomness)). The two are indeed not equivalent.