There’s correspondingly more liquidity subsidies on these markets, which makes the consequences the same in expectation (i.e., others would love to eat your free money by correcting the attempted manipulation just as much as they would on normally structured decision markets). Everyone just makes bets 1000x larger than they normally would.
Yes, in expectation. But you’re adding a lot of variance. I thought the stochasticity of the punishment affects its effectiveness, and that’s a tradeoff you make to get the causal structure.
There’s correspondingly more liquidity subsidies on these markets, which makes the consequences the same in expectation (i.e., others would love to eat your free money by correcting the attempted manipulation just as much as they would on normally structured decision markets). Everyone just makes bets 1000x larger than they normally would.
Yes, in expectation. But you’re adding a lot of variance. I thought the stochasticity of the punishment affects its effectiveness, and that’s a tradeoff you make to get the causal structure.