Belief is about how we think the world is. Fear is about what we think the world might be, or might become, if we don’t act to preempt the outcome.
Both can change, because the world itself can change and we can get new information that changes what is most likely. The difference is that changing beliefs usually requires additional information. For example, if you believe that you don’t own a bike, learning that your friend bought you one for your birthday will change that belief.
In contrast, when you hear a rustling in the bushes and run screaming “There’s a tiger in that bush! It’s gonna eat me!”, does that mean that once you safely get out of that situation you will recollect and determine “Yes, there was actually a tiger in that bush”? Will you experience surprise when you don’t get eaten? Or will you just think “I don’t know if it was actually a tiger or not, but I wasn’t gonna stay and find out!”. Because if it’s the latter, then you never actually believed that you would get eaten or just that there was a tiger in the bush, just that the possibility of “Tiger!” was too high to ignore and that you might have to run to keep from getting eaten.
That alarm shouting “Tiger!” raises some hypotheses which urgently call for attention, but you don’t wait around until you believe “there is a tiger in that bush, and it is going to eat me”. You’re trying to get out of there before there is enough evidence to justify these as facts about reality.
If you find yourself “not in deep shit” and recollecting, will you look back and think “Wait, how’d that happen? There was no way out and now I’m out??? This doesn’t make sense”? Or will it feel more like “Whew! That was a close one!” or “I’m glad that didn’t turn out to be true!”?
As you look forward, do you find yourself still looking for ways out? Writing LessWrong posts in hopes of finding ways out? Because that behavior wouldn’t make a whole lot of sense if you don’t think there’s anything there to be found. It makes a lot of sense if you’re not sure what’s there, and you sense a danger of losing your way out if you don’t act.
Wow! I was thrilled with the answer! Good definitions help me understand better. Even if they don’t have much in common, right? Fear or belief, they both have a hypothesis that I believe in to act, or not? From what you say, I see that the main difference is each person’s level of urgency. Could that be it?
Yes, I still find myself losing action because of this fear of being in the shit. That I have almost no chance of getting the salary I used to have or the prestige. In that sense, I would be in the shit. But then I ask myself the question: “Are you 100% sure that you’re completely in the shit and have nothing worthwhile?” In other words, the tiger exists, but it would still be possible to do something. And then there’s the opening to question more about what to do and see how in the shit I really am. Or am I talking nonsense?
For me, this is the best question that helps me not to be paralyzed by fear and to gain the openness to question myself and value other things in the shit. and for you?
The urgency comes from noticing that the beliefs you’re navigating by are likely insufficient, in light of new evidence. E.g. “There are no tigers around, so I can walk outside without getting eaten” is called into question when you hear a rustling in the bushes, and figuring out whether you can actually walk around outside without getting eaten can be pretty urgent. If you already know there are tigers are around, you just won’t go outside, so the urgency isn’t going to be there unless your beliefs are challenged in a time sensitive manner.
As applied to your situation, I don’t know what chance you have of getting the same or similar salary or prestige. “No chance” seems pretty hard to justify given the immense possibility space and inherent uncertainty of the future, but I don’t know your situation. It doesn’t sound like the end of the world either way to me. I’m not saying it’s not important, and if you’ve been navigating by beliefs that said you’d definitely keep that or more, then it totally makes sense that you’d be shaken when evidence comes in saying this might not be true.
At the same time, not everyone has to have the highest paying most prestigious jobs. Take my parent’s old mail man, for example. He’s got to be the happiest and most genuinely friendly person I’ve ever met. Not because he got the most prestigious job or hasn’t had struggles outside his work life, but because of the way he chooses to relate to the world with openness to what it might bring. I admire that, and want to be more like that. Making lots of money is definitely nice, and prestige is a good sign you’re doing things right and feels good for a reason. But I think a lot of what fuels these drives for salary and prestige is really an underlying drive for respect, and knowing that we’re making the most of what we can. And I think he has that, more than a lot of people in much more prestigious and higher paying careers. He definitely has more of my respect than most others in those categories, and I suspect this is also true of people closer to him—who tend to matter more than the broader society anyway.
If something happened and I found myself needing to deliver mail for a living it would be devastating to me. I’ve put in a lot of work and a lot of thoughts and expectations into being able to do other things that are higher paying and all that, so it wouldn’t just be a giant loss I would also be largely lost. I wouldn’t know what to do, where to go, and I certainly wouldn’t want to give up on what I once had. If that’s something like the potential reality you’re navigating right now, I can’t say “I get it” in that I haven’t actually been there, let alone in your shoes. But I get why it’d be tough, and overwhelming. I hope to never get there. If I do, I know who I’m looking to role model. Proof by example that there’s still something difficult to strive towards, which is very worth striving towards.
None of this makes any of it easy, of course. Life is a lot to figure out, regardless. Hopefully this makes it a little clearer what fuzzy light to aim towards, should your fear turn out to be a likely reality. And hopefully having a sketch of a line of retreat makes it easier to explore and figure out if it actually is.
Best of luck to you Joao. I’m looking forward to seeing where you go next, and how things turn out for you.
First thanks! Your empathy makes me vibrate! if it was devastating, mainly for the reasons that tube que dejar todo.
NOoo! I’m in agreement, my goal, it wouldn’t be to have the prestige at the same time, but at least manage to have a minimum stable income of say 800 dollars, which I’ve been waiting for for 13 years. I don’t have so much trouble taking care of gardens, walking dogs or working in prison. that are the things that im working now. But I didn’t see enough stability to be able to have a peaceful child or family.
Belief is about how we think the world is. Fear is about what we think the world might be, or might become, if we don’t act to preempt the outcome.
Both can change, because the world itself can change and we can get new information that changes what is most likely. The difference is that changing beliefs usually requires additional information. For example, if you believe that you don’t own a bike, learning that your friend bought you one for your birthday will change that belief.
In contrast, when you hear a rustling in the bushes and run screaming “There’s a tiger in that bush! It’s gonna eat me!”, does that mean that once you safely get out of that situation you will recollect and determine “Yes, there was actually a tiger in that bush”? Will you experience surprise when you don’t get eaten? Or will you just think “I don’t know if it was actually a tiger or not, but I wasn’t gonna stay and find out!”. Because if it’s the latter, then you never actually believed that you would get eaten or just that there was a tiger in the bush, just that the possibility of “Tiger!” was too high to ignore and that you might have to run to keep from getting eaten.
That alarm shouting “Tiger!” raises some hypotheses which urgently call for attention, but you don’t wait around until you believe “there is a tiger in that bush, and it is going to eat me”. You’re trying to get out of there before there is enough evidence to justify these as facts about reality.
If you find yourself “not in deep shit” and recollecting, will you look back and think “Wait, how’d that happen? There was no way out and now I’m out??? This doesn’t make sense”? Or will it feel more like “Whew! That was a close one!” or “I’m glad that didn’t turn out to be true!”?
As you look forward, do you find yourself still looking for ways out? Writing LessWrong posts in hopes of finding ways out? Because that behavior wouldn’t make a whole lot of sense if you don’t think there’s anything there to be found. It makes a lot of sense if you’re not sure what’s there, and you sense a danger of losing your way out if you don’t act.
Wow! I was thrilled with the answer! Good definitions help me understand better. Even if they don’t have much in common, right? Fear or belief, they both have a hypothesis that I believe in to act, or not? From what you say, I see that the main difference is each person’s level of urgency. Could that be it?
Yes, I still find myself losing action because of this fear of being in the shit. That I have almost no chance of getting the salary I used to have or the prestige. In that sense, I would be in the shit. But then I ask myself the question: “Are you 100% sure that you’re completely in the shit and have nothing worthwhile?” In other words, the tiger exists, but it would still be possible to do something. And then there’s the opening to question more about what to do and see how in the shit I really am. Or am I talking nonsense?
For me, this is the best question that helps me not to be paralyzed by fear and to gain the openness to question myself and value other things in the shit. and for you?
The urgency comes from noticing that the beliefs you’re navigating by are likely insufficient, in light of new evidence. E.g. “There are no tigers around, so I can walk outside without getting eaten” is called into question when you hear a rustling in the bushes, and figuring out whether you can actually walk around outside without getting eaten can be pretty urgent. If you already know there are tigers are around, you just won’t go outside, so the urgency isn’t going to be there unless your beliefs are challenged in a time sensitive manner.
As applied to your situation, I don’t know what chance you have of getting the same or similar salary or prestige. “No chance” seems pretty hard to justify given the immense possibility space and inherent uncertainty of the future, but I don’t know your situation. It doesn’t sound like the end of the world either way to me. I’m not saying it’s not important, and if you’ve been navigating by beliefs that said you’d definitely keep that or more, then it totally makes sense that you’d be shaken when evidence comes in saying this might not be true.
At the same time, not everyone has to have the highest paying most prestigious jobs. Take my parent’s old mail man, for example. He’s got to be the happiest and most genuinely friendly person I’ve ever met. Not because he got the most prestigious job or hasn’t had struggles outside his work life, but because of the way he chooses to relate to the world with openness to what it might bring. I admire that, and want to be more like that. Making lots of money is definitely nice, and prestige is a good sign you’re doing things right and feels good for a reason. But I think a lot of what fuels these drives for salary and prestige is really an underlying drive for respect, and knowing that we’re making the most of what we can. And I think he has that, more than a lot of people in much more prestigious and higher paying careers. He definitely has more of my respect than most others in those categories, and I suspect this is also true of people closer to him—who tend to matter more than the broader society anyway.
If something happened and I found myself needing to deliver mail for a living it would be devastating to me. I’ve put in a lot of work and a lot of thoughts and expectations into being able to do other things that are higher paying and all that, so it wouldn’t just be a giant loss I would also be largely lost. I wouldn’t know what to do, where to go, and I certainly wouldn’t want to give up on what I once had. If that’s something like the potential reality you’re navigating right now, I can’t say “I get it” in that I haven’t actually been there, let alone in your shoes. But I get why it’d be tough, and overwhelming. I hope to never get there. If I do, I know who I’m looking to role model. Proof by example that there’s still something difficult to strive towards, which is very worth striving towards.
None of this makes any of it easy, of course. Life is a lot to figure out, regardless. Hopefully this makes it a little clearer what fuzzy light to aim towards, should your fear turn out to be a likely reality. And hopefully having a sketch of a line of retreat makes it easier to explore and figure out if it actually is.
Best of luck to you Joao. I’m looking forward to seeing where you go next, and how things turn out for you.
First thanks! Your empathy makes me vibrate! if it was devastating, mainly for the reasons that tube que dejar todo.
NOoo! I’m in agreement, my goal, it wouldn’t be to have the prestige at the same time, but at least manage to have a minimum stable income of say 800 dollars, which I’ve been waiting for for 13 years. I don’t have so much trouble taking care of gardens, walking dogs or working in prison. that are the things that im working now. But I didn’t see enough stability to be able to have a peaceful child or family.